ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Index45.945.9 to 45.946.045.0

Highlights

Manufacturing activity deteriorated in October. At 46.0, the final PMI was just 0.1 point above its lowly flash estimate, 1.0 point stronger than its final September mark and fully 4 points below the 50-expansion threshold.

The best-performing countries were Spain (54.5), Ireland (51.5) and Greece (51.2) where growth was at least positive. However, the Netherlands (47.0), Italy (46.9), France (44.5), Germany (43.0) and Austria (42.0) all saw fresh contractions. In particular, Austria recorded its weakest performance in 10 months.

October's setback reflects the 28th month in a row in which the manufacturing economy deteriorated, marking the longest downturn on record. Weakness in region was again mainly attributable to its two largest economies, Germany and France, where contractions were particularly severe. Factory output for the Eurozone declined while employment also fell due to worsening business confidence.

Input costs also decreased in October, leading to discounts as firms responded by trimming factory gate prices.

Today's update puts the Eurozone RPI at 29 and the RPI-P at 20. Overall economic activity is moderately outperforming market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasters look for no change in the final index reading from 45.9 in the flash.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 3,000 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). Released by S&P Global, national data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece. These countries together account for an estimated 89 percent of Eurozone manufacturing activity.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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