| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -1.3% | -1.5% to -1.0% | -2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Year over Year | -1.4% | -1.7% to -1.0% | -2.8% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
Highlights
Having expanded a solid, albeit weaker revised, monthly 1.5 percent in August, industrial production slumped fully 2.0 percent in September. This was its steepest decline since January and leaves intact a solid downtrend in output. Yearly growth dropped to minus 2.8 percent and production now stands at its lowest level since September 2020.
September's nosedive was led by capital goods which fully unwound August's 3.8 percent monthly jump. Elsewhere, consumer durables (0.5 percent) and non-durables (1.6 percent) at least made fresh ground but intermediates were only flat and energy (minus 1.5 percent) declined.
Regionally the headline fall was dominated by Germany where production was down some 2.7 percent. France (minus 0.9 percent) similarly had a poor month as did Italy (minus 0.4 percent) but Spain (0.9 percent) posted a solid gain after back-to-back losses in July/August.
September's surprisingly weak report leaves third quarter Eurozone industrial production 0.3 percent below its second quarter level, implying another hit on GDP growth. Business surveys so far suggest little better in the current period. That said, today's data put the Eurozone RPI at 13 and the RPI-P at 1, the former showing a still marginal degree of overall economic outperformance.
September's nosedive was led by capital goods which fully unwound August's 3.8 percent monthly jump. Elsewhere, consumer durables (0.5 percent) and non-durables (1.6 percent) at least made fresh ground but intermediates were only flat and energy (minus 1.5 percent) declined.
Regionally the headline fall was dominated by Germany where production was down some 2.7 percent. France (minus 0.9 percent) similarly had a poor month as did Italy (minus 0.4 percent) but Spain (0.9 percent) posted a solid gain after back-to-back losses in July/August.
September's surprisingly weak report leaves third quarter Eurozone industrial production 0.3 percent below its second quarter level, implying another hit on GDP growth. Business surveys so far suggest little better in the current period. That said, today's data put the Eurozone RPI at 13 and the RPI-P at 1, the former showing a still marginal degree of overall economic outperformance.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Industrial production is seen falling back by 1.3 percent on the month and down 1.4 percent on the year in October. In September, output surged by 1.8 percent on the month and rose by a modest 0.1 percent on the year.
Definition
Industrial production measures the physical output of factories, mines and utilities. The measure provided by Eurostat excludes the volatile construction subsector for which data are released a few days later.
Description
Industrial production measures changes in the volume of output for the EMU's member states. The industrial production index provides a measure of the volume trend in value added at factor cost over a given reference period, excluding VAT and other similar deductible taxes. The preferred number is industrial production excluding construction. As with other EMU statistics, the data are provided by the national statistics offices to Eurostat (the European Union statistical agency) where it is combined to produce an overall output measure.
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
