Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
HICP - Y/Y | 2.3% | 2.2% to 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% |
Narrow Core - Y/Y | 2.8% | 2.8% to 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
Highlights
The key core rates were better behaved. The narrowest gauge held steady at 2.7 percent, just short of forecasts, while the measure excluding just energy and unprocessed food edged just 0.1 percentage point firmer to 2.8 percent. Inflation in services dipped 0.1 percentage point to 3.9 percent while its non-energy industrial goods counterpart edged 0.2 percentage points higher to a still very soft 0.7 percent. Consequently, most of the boost to the overall rate came from energy (minus 1.9 percent after minus 4.6 percent).
Regionally, headline inflation rose only slightly in France (1.7 percent after 1.6 percent), but climbed much more sharply in both Spain (2.4 percent after 1.8 percent) and Italy (1.6 percent after 1.0 percent). Inflation remained stable in Germany (2.4 percent).
The acceleration in Eurozone inflation this month will not come as a surprise to the ECB which had already warned of some upside potential through year-end. Consequently, it should not prevent another cut in key interest rates in December. Even so, the November update probably means that key rates will be cut by 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points. Today's report nudges up the Eurozone RPI to minus 23 and lifts the RPI-P to minus 18. However, both gauges still show overall economic activity running behind market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.