Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.4% | 0.4% to 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Year over Year | 0.9% | 0.9% to 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
Highlights
Within the region's quarterly advance, France expanded an unrevised 0.4 percent, but is expected by the national central bank to show no growth at all this quarter, and Spain climbed a solid 0.8 percent. Germany also matched its 0.2 percent preliminary flash reading as did Italy which stagnated. Elsewhere, Ireland grew fully 2.0 percent and Lithuania 1.1 percent but Latvia remained in recession with a 0.4 percent contraction. There were no other outright declines.
Prospects for the current quarter do not look particularly good - GDP growth is very likely to slow markedly - and the likelihood of increased tariffs on Eurozone exports by the new Trump administration can only harm the outlook for next year. Inflation permitting, there is nothing in the data to prevent the ECB easing again in December although, for now, a 25 basis point cut seems more probable than a larger 50 basis point move. Today's reports put the Eurozone RPI at 13 and the RPI-P at 1, the former showing a marginal degree of overall economic outperformance.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.