ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter0.4%0.4% to 0.4%0.4%0.4%
Year over Year0.9%0.9% to 0.9%0.9%0.9%

Highlights

The preliminary flash data for the July-September period were unrevised, leaving a 0.4 percent quarterly rise in GDP and a 0.9 percent yearly increase. The quarterly gain was double the second quarter pace and represented the region's best performance in two years but will have been biased up by a boost from the Paris Olympics.

Within the region's quarterly advance, France expanded an unrevised 0.4 percent, but is expected by the national central bank to show no growth at all this quarter, and Spain climbed a solid 0.8 percent. Germany also matched its 0.2 percent preliminary flash reading as did Italy which stagnated. Elsewhere, Ireland grew fully 2.0 percent and Lithuania 1.1 percent but Latvia remained in recession with a 0.4 percent contraction. There were no other outright declines.

Prospects for the current quarter do not look particularly good - GDP growth is very likely to slow markedly - and the likelihood of increased tariffs on Eurozone exports by the new Trump administration can only harm the outlook for next year. Inflation permitting, there is nothing in the data to prevent the ECB easing again in December although, for now, a 25 basis point cut seems more probable than a larger 50 basis point move. Today's reports put the Eurozone RPI at 13 and the RPI-P at 1, the former showing a marginal degree of overall economic outperformance.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

GDP is seen up 0.4 percent on quarter and up 0.9 percent on year.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. There are two preliminary estimates which are based on only partial data. The first is the preliminary flash, introduced in April 2016 and limited to just quarterly and annual growth statistics for the region as a whole. This is issued close to the end of the month immediately after the reference period. The second flash report, released about two weeks later, expands on the first to include growth figures for most member states but still provides no information on the GDP expenditure components.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
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