ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Composite Index55.354.3
Manufacturing Index48.847.848.848.0 to 49.2
Services Index57.055.355.155.0 to 55.4

Highlights

The Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.5 in October to 48.8 in November, signaling a deterioration in business conditions within the goods-producing sector for a fifth month in a row. However, this is still in line with the consensus as well as the slowest rate of deterioration since July.

The services PMI grew sharply from 55.0 in October to 57.0 in November, reaching a 31-month high. This was driven mainly by the largest rise in demand for two and a half years and improved business confidence.

Future sentiment after slumping to a 23-month low in September, rebounded for the second month in a row in November with optimism about output in the coming year rising to the highest since May 2022. This is attributed to the prospect of lower interest rates, improved economic growth and the expectation of more supportive business policies from the new administration in 2025.

Details for manufacturing include a 2.9-point decline for output to 46.3. Production fell as new orders fell, albeit at a slower rate of decline than September's 15-month peak. Delivery times also increase, largely linked to a rise in purchasing inputs ahead of potential tariffs on imported inputs. Employment rose only slightly.

Input cost inflation slowed, with average prices charged for goods and services cooling to the lowest since prices began rising in June 2020.

The PMI composite weighted overwhelmingly towards services, rose from 54.1 in October to 55.3 in November which signaled a sustained expansion of business activity. By sector, growth remained uneven, with the service sector growing at a strong steady rate while manufacturing output continued to decline.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The consensus looks for PMI manufacturing flash at 48.8 and services at 55.1.

Definition

The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private sector output by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. The flash data are released around 10 days ahead of the final report and are typically based upon around 85 percent of the full survey sample. The report tracks changes in variables such as new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across both manufacturing and services. Production is also tracked, defined as"production" for manufacturing and"output" for services. Results are synthesized into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster output is growing (contracting). The report also contains flash estimates of the manufacturing and services PMIs. The data are produced by S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
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