Highlights

Fed Chair Jerome Powell laid out a picture of a US economy displaying"solid" growth with data stronger than expected. In sum, the labor market has rebalanced and is now"less tight" than pre-pandemic, overall inflation has moved"much closer" to the Fed's 2% objective although core inflation remains somewhat elevated, and inflation expectations by any measure are well-anchored.

The FOMC decision to cut 25 basis points to bring the fed funds target range down to 4.50-4.75 percent, a"further recalibration" that is"on a path to a more neutral stance" for monetary policy. The balance of risks for the labor market and inflation are now"roughly balanced". The FOMC remains data dependent. As Powell noted, there are six weeks before the December 17-18 FOMC meeting and monetary policy is not on a preset course. He said the FOMC is well positioned to move more slowly if appropriate to fight inflation, or more quickly if there are signs of deterioration in the labor market. Powell offered no signal on the outlook for rates in December.

When Powell was asked if he would leave if the incoming administration asked him to resign, he gave a blunt"no". When asked if he was legally obliged to resign if asked, it was an equally blunt"no".

Powell said that in the near term, the election results will have no implications for setting monetary policy. In the future,"We don't know what the timing and substance of any changes in policy will be." He declared,"We don't guess, we don't speculate, we don't assume." When the economic policies of the incoming administration are known, the Fed will incorporate these into the larger model of the economy. Even then, changes in policy are only one factor in a large framework by which decisions are made.

Definition

The Fed announced in 2011 that then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke would hold press briefings four times a year to explain the FOMC's latest quarterly economic projections. The purpose of the briefings is to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions and to allow for questions-and-answers with the press. According to the Fed, the"introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy communication." The press briefing is held at 2:30 p.m. ET on the days of FOMC statements in which quarterly projections are released. Beginning in 2019, the briefing will be held after each FOMC meeting. The policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET after the conclusion of every FOMC meeting regardless of whether there are forecasts or not.

Description

The Fed’s meeting statement and economic projections can move financial markets. However, the Fed’s meeting statement — which indicates any changes in monetary policy—typically is very concise and lacking in detail. However, the Fed now releases its economic forecasts four times a year. As of March 20, 2013, the forecasts are released at the same time as the FOMC statement during the months of March, June, September, and December. After each of the 8 Fed meetings, the chair holds a press conference to explain the forecasts and other policy issues. The chair’s press conference allows for the financial markets and public in general to learn more about why and how the monetary policy decision was made and to learn more about FOMC views on the direction of the economy—including real growth, inflation, unemployment, expected timing of changes in the fed funds rate, and expected levels of the fed funds rate in the near term.
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