Highlights
In the UK, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will present the new Labour government's first Budget. An overshooting public sector deficit means tax rises are very likely.
The French GDP data is expected to show the economy grew 0.4% in the July-September quarter from April-June, when it rose 0.2%.
The KOF Swiss leading indicator is forecast to slip to 105.1 in October from 105.5 in September but remain well above its 100 long-run average.
The German unemployment is expected to rise to 6.1% in October from 6.0% in September, suggesting the distress is not letting up for Europe's largest economy.
Germany's third-quarter GDP is forecast to post a second consecutive contraction on quarter, down a slight 0.1%, following a 0.1% dip in Q2 and a modest 0.2% rebound in Q1.
By contrast, the Italian economy is expected to have grown 0.3% on quarter in July-September, marking a fifth straight expansion after a 0.2% rise in April-June.
The Eurozone economic sentiment index is seen little changed at 96.3 in October vs. 98.2 in September. The industry sentiment index is forecast at minus 11.0, down from minus 10.9 while the consumer sentiment is estimated at 12.5, up slightly from minus 12.9.
The region's preliminary GDP report is expected to show quarterly growth of 0.2% in the July-September period after rising at the same pace in April-June, indicating a modest yearlong pickup.
In the U.S., the ADP report is seen showing private payrolls rose 115,000 in October, slowing from 143,000 in September.
The U.S. economy remains resilient, with GDP expected to post 3.0% annualized growth in Q3 backed by personal spending after expanding at the same rate in Q2.
In the German CPI data, due at 9 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT), the annual inflation rate is forecast to accelerate to 1.8% in October from 1.6% in September. the harmonised index of consumer prices is seen up 2.1% on year, also up from 1.8%.
U.S. pending home sales are expected to rise 1.0% on the month in September, up from a 0.6% gain in August.
Japan's industrial production is forecast to rebound a modest 0.8% on the month in September in line with a pickup in real exports after plunging 3.3% in August and rising 3.1% in July. Toyota Motor resumed output of some models suspended earlier amid a false safety record scandal. Global demand for semiconductors also remains solid. METI's survey of producers indicated that output is expected to edge up 0.3% in September before rising a further 2.0% in October.
Last month, the ministry maintained its assessment, saying industrial output is"taking one step forward and one step back" after upgrading it in the prior month.
Japanese retail sales are forecast to show a modest 1.7% gain on the year in September after rising an upwardly revised 3.1% in August. New vehicle sales appear to have gained some traction, but department store sales lost more steam and gasoline prices fell further.
Last month, the METI maintained its assessment after upgrading it for the second straight month for the June data, saying retail sales are"on an uptrend." Industry data released last week showed department store sales marked the 31st straight year-on-year rise in September, up 2.3%, with the pace of increase decelerating further from 3.9% in August, 5.5 % in July and 14.0% in June. Sales last month slumped 14.8% from the pre-pandemic September 2019, a second straight drop in five-year comparison after a 0.3% dip in August that ensued many months of gains that confirmed that the economy had recovered from the Covid slump.
Australian retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% on the month in September, easing from a 0.7% gain in August.
In China's official CFLP purchasing managers index data, modest improvement is expected for the manufacturing sector, rising to the neutral line of 50.0 in October after climbing to 48.9 in September from 49.1 in August. The services index is forecast at 50.4 after slipping to 50.0 from 50.3.
The Bank of Japan's nine-member board is widely expected to decide in a unanimous vote to maintain the target for the overnight interest rate at 0.25% amid gyrations in financial markets including the recent jump in the dollar toward Y153 from a low of around Y142 hit in late September. The bank is expected to announce the results of its two-day meeting sometime between 11:30 a.m. and 1 p.m. JST on Thursday, Oct. 31 (0230 and 0400 GMT the same day/10:30 p.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 30 and midnight EDT on Thursday, Oct. 31).
Economists and market participants expect the bank to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points at the Dec. 18-19 meeting. The board stood pat in September after voting 7 to 2 to hike the rate to 0.25% from a range of 0% to 0.1% in July, citing gradually rising inflation expectations among households and businesses.
Governor Kazuo Ueda told reporters in Washington on Oct. 24 after a regular meeting of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors that the BOJ still has time to consider when to raise interest rates as part of its policy normalization process following a decade of large-scale monetary easing aimed at reflating the economy. In March, the bank conducted its first rate hike in 17 years and ended the seven-year-old yield curve control framework in a 7 to 2 vote.
In their quarterly Outlook Report, BOJ policymakers are likely to largely maintain their medium-term growth and inflation projections: GDP +0.6% in fiscal 2024 ending next March, +1.0% in both fiscal 2025 and 2026: core CPI (excluding fresh food) +2.5% in fiscal 2024, +2.1% in fiscal 2025 and +1.9% in fiscal 2026. Board members are also expected to maintain their risk assessment, saying,"There remain high uncertainties surrounding Japan's economic activity and prices, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices, developments in commodity prices, and domestic firms' wage- and price-setting behavior."
The French GDP data is expected to show the economy grew 0.4% in the July-September quarter from April-June, when it rose 0.2%.
The KOF Swiss leading indicator is forecast to slip to 105.1 in October from 105.5 in September but remain well above its 100 long-run average.
The German unemployment is expected to rise to 6.1% in October from 6.0% in September, suggesting the distress is not letting up for Europe's largest economy.
Germany's third-quarter GDP is forecast to post a second consecutive contraction on quarter, down a slight 0.1%, following a 0.1% dip in Q2 and a modest 0.2% rebound in Q1.
By contrast, the Italian economy is expected to have grown 0.3% on quarter in July-September, marking a fifth straight expansion after a 0.2% rise in April-June.
The Eurozone economic sentiment index is seen little changed at 96.3 in October vs. 98.2 in September. The industry sentiment index is forecast at minus 11.0, down from minus 10.9 while the consumer sentiment is estimated at 12.5, up slightly from minus 12.9.
The region's preliminary GDP report is expected to show quarterly growth of 0.2% in the July-September period after rising at the same pace in April-June, indicating a modest yearlong pickup.
In the U.S., the ADP report is seen showing private payrolls rose 115,000 in October, slowing from 143,000 in September.
The U.S. economy remains resilient, with GDP expected to post 3.0% annualized growth in Q3 backed by personal spending after expanding at the same rate in Q2.
In the German CPI data, due at 9 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT), the annual inflation rate is forecast to accelerate to 1.8% in October from 1.6% in September. the harmonised index of consumer prices is seen up 2.1% on year, also up from 1.8%.
U.S. pending home sales are expected to rise 1.0% on the month in September, up from a 0.6% gain in August.
Japan's industrial production is forecast to rebound a modest 0.8% on the month in September in line with a pickup in real exports after plunging 3.3% in August and rising 3.1% in July. Toyota Motor resumed output of some models suspended earlier amid a false safety record scandal. Global demand for semiconductors also remains solid. METI's survey of producers indicated that output is expected to edge up 0.3% in September before rising a further 2.0% in October.
Last month, the ministry maintained its assessment, saying industrial output is"taking one step forward and one step back" after upgrading it in the prior month.
Japanese retail sales are forecast to show a modest 1.7% gain on the year in September after rising an upwardly revised 3.1% in August. New vehicle sales appear to have gained some traction, but department store sales lost more steam and gasoline prices fell further.
Last month, the METI maintained its assessment after upgrading it for the second straight month for the June data, saying retail sales are"on an uptrend." Industry data released last week showed department store sales marked the 31st straight year-on-year rise in September, up 2.3%, with the pace of increase decelerating further from 3.9% in August, 5.5 % in July and 14.0% in June. Sales last month slumped 14.8% from the pre-pandemic September 2019, a second straight drop in five-year comparison after a 0.3% dip in August that ensued many months of gains that confirmed that the economy had recovered from the Covid slump.
Australian retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% on the month in September, easing from a 0.7% gain in August.
In China's official CFLP purchasing managers index data, modest improvement is expected for the manufacturing sector, rising to the neutral line of 50.0 in October after climbing to 48.9 in September from 49.1 in August. The services index is forecast at 50.4 after slipping to 50.0 from 50.3.
The Bank of Japan's nine-member board is widely expected to decide in a unanimous vote to maintain the target for the overnight interest rate at 0.25% amid gyrations in financial markets including the recent jump in the dollar toward Y153 from a low of around Y142 hit in late September. The bank is expected to announce the results of its two-day meeting sometime between 11:30 a.m. and 1 p.m. JST on Thursday, Oct. 31 (0230 and 0400 GMT the same day/10:30 p.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 30 and midnight EDT on Thursday, Oct. 31).
Economists and market participants expect the bank to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points at the Dec. 18-19 meeting. The board stood pat in September after voting 7 to 2 to hike the rate to 0.25% from a range of 0% to 0.1% in July, citing gradually rising inflation expectations among households and businesses.
Governor Kazuo Ueda told reporters in Washington on Oct. 24 after a regular meeting of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors that the BOJ still has time to consider when to raise interest rates as part of its policy normalization process following a decade of large-scale monetary easing aimed at reflating the economy. In March, the bank conducted its first rate hike in 17 years and ended the seven-year-old yield curve control framework in a 7 to 2 vote.
In their quarterly Outlook Report, BOJ policymakers are likely to largely maintain their medium-term growth and inflation projections: GDP +0.6% in fiscal 2024 ending next March, +1.0% in both fiscal 2025 and 2026: core CPI (excluding fresh food) +2.5% in fiscal 2024, +2.1% in fiscal 2025 and +1.9% in fiscal 2026. Board members are also expected to maintain their risk assessment, saying,"There remain high uncertainties surrounding Japan's economic activity and prices, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices, developments in commodity prices, and domestic firms' wage- and price-setting behavior."
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
