ActualPreviousRevisedConsensus
Month over Month0.4%1.4%2.2%
Year over Year3.2%2.7%2.9%2.6%

Highlights

Retail sales made further progress in August. Volumes rose 0.4 percent versus July when they increased an upwardly revised 2.2 percent. Annual growth climbed from a stronger revised 2.9 percent to 3.2 percent, again well above the market consensus and the best performance since February 2022.

August's monthly gain was attributable to a 0.6 percent rise in purchases of food, drink and tobacco and a 2.4 percent gain in auto fuel. Non-food sales, excluding auto fuel, dropped 0.4 percent but that came after a 2.0 percent spike in July.

Today's update sees average total volume sales in July/August 1.6 percent above their mean level in the second quarter and so puts the retail sector on course to provide a tidy boost to third quarter GDP growth. It also leaves the Swiss RPI at 18 and the RPI-P at 29 both gauges showing economic activity in general still outpacing market forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Yearly sales growth is forecast to be broadly stable at 2.6 percent after 2.7 percent in July.

Definition

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The survey comprises around 4,000 companies with the small-sized firms asked to provide monthly turnover data on a quarterly basis. Statistics are provided in both nominal and volume measures; the latter is the more important for financial markets. The headline figure is the annual growth in sales volumes adjusted for differences in trading days. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes are also provided. Details are limited in the first estimate but a more complete picture is provided with the following month's release.

Description

Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
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