| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | A$5.5B | A$2.0B to A$9.7B | A$5.644B | A$6.009B | A$5.636B |
| Imports - M/M | -0.2% | -0.8% | -0.6% | ||
| Imports - Y/Y | -0.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | ||
| Exports - M/M | -0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | ||
| Exports -Y/Y | -6.7% | -1.4% | -2.8% |
Highlights
Australia's goods trade surplus widened slightly from a revised A$5.636 billion in July to A$5.644 billion in August, above the consensus forecast of A$5.5 billion. Exports and imports both fell modestly on the month.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports fell 0.2 percent on the month in August after an increase of 0.3 percent in July. Exports of non-rural goods rebounded with an increase of 0.8 percent after falling 0.4 percent previously, but this was outweighed by weaker exports of rural goods, down 3.9 percent after a previous increase of 3.8 percent. Exports fell 6.7 percent on the year in August after a decline of 2.8 percent in June.
Seasonally adjusted imports fell 0.2 percent on the month in August after dropping 0.6 percent in July. Imports of capital goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods recorded stronger growth, but this was outweighed by a drop in imports of consumption goods. Total imports fell 0.1 percent on the year in August after advancing 8.6 percent in June.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports fell 0.2 percent on the month in August after an increase of 0.3 percent in July. Exports of non-rural goods rebounded with an increase of 0.8 percent after falling 0.4 percent previously, but this was outweighed by weaker exports of rural goods, down 3.9 percent after a previous increase of 3.8 percent. Exports fell 6.7 percent on the year in August after a decline of 2.8 percent in June.
Seasonally adjusted imports fell 0.2 percent on the month in August after dropping 0.6 percent in July. Imports of capital goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods recorded stronger growth, but this was outweighed by a drop in imports of consumption goods. Total imports fell 0.1 percent on the year in August after advancing 8.6 percent in June.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consensus for international trade in goods in August is a surplus of A$5.5 billion versus July's A$6.009 billion surplus that compared with expectations for a surplus of A$5.0 billion.
Definition
The Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
