Actual | Previous | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.2% | -1.2% | ||
Year over Year | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% to 1.4% |
HICP - M/M | 0.3% | -1.3% | ||
HICP - Y/Y | 1.5% | 1.4% |
Highlights
Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent month-over-month in October after falling 1.2 percent in September. Higher energy costs, notably petroleum and gas, and seasonal increases in apparel, footwear, transport, and fresh food prices are drivers of the uptick, while tobacco costs remain stable.
Similarly, the harmonised index of consumer prices were up 1.5 percent year-over-year and 0.3 percent month-over-month. This slight uptick may balance year-end inflation forecasts as energy and critical goods prices rise. The latest update takes the French RPI to minus 10 and RPI-P to minus 10, showing overall economic activity running just a little ahead of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.