ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Month over Month0.2%-1.2%
Year over Year1.2%1.1%1.2%1.2% to 1.4%
HICP - M/M0.3%-1.3%
HICP - Y/Y1.5%1.4%

Highlights

In October, the consumer price index provisionally rose 1.2 percent year-over-year, matching the consensus and up from September's 1.1 percent. Inflation is stable due to slower service cost increases and lower energy prices than last month. Manufacturing, food, and tobacco prices are likely to stay stable year-over-year, matching September's patterns.

Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent month-over-month in October after falling 1.2 percent in September. Higher energy costs, notably petroleum and gas, and seasonal increases in apparel, footwear, transport, and fresh food prices are drivers of the uptick, while tobacco costs remain stable.

Similarly, the harmonised index of consumer prices were up 1.5 percent year-over-year and 0.3 percent month-over-month. This slight uptick may balance year-end inflation forecasts as energy and critical goods prices rise. The latest update takes the French RPI to minus 10 and RPI-P to minus 10, showing overall economic activity running just a little ahead of market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The consensus looks for CPI up 1.2 percent from a year ago.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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