Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.4% | 0.2% to 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
Year over Year | 1.3% | 1.1% |
Highlights
Domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth, tripling its contribution in the second quarter. This suggests a gradual recovery in local economic activity. In contrast, foreign trade had a lesser positive impact of 0.1 point, as imports contracted faster than exports, alleviating trade pressures. Inventories provided a modest buffer to overall growth, contributing a marginal 0.1 points an increase from zero in the previous quarter.
While positive, the growth pattern of last quarter indicates only a tentative recovery. This recovery is primarily supported by event-driven consumption but is tempered by persistent investment instability and marginal trade and inventory contributions. Today's report puts the French RPI at minus 3 and RPI-P at zero, showing overall economic activity moving in line with market forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.