ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month-1.2%-1.2%-1.2%
Year over Year1.2%1.1%1.2%
HICP - M/M-1.2%-1.3%-1.2%
HICP - Y/Y1.5%1.4%1.5%

Highlights

The final September data confirm a marked easing in inflation following an August report boosted by the effects of the Paris Olympics. Prices fell an unrevised 1.2 percent on the month, the steepest on record, reducing headline inflation from August's final 1.8 percent to downwardly revised 1.1 percent.

Prices are seasonally soft in September and last month were driven by a hefty 4.8 percent decrease in transport costs, particularly airfares, and a 17.2 percent decline in accommodation prices.

Energy prices also continued to decrease, with a 3.5 percent decrease in petroleum products, while food prices experienced a minor decrease of 0.3 percent. Conversely, the cost of manufactured products, such as footwear and apparel, increased at a lesser rate.Inflation decreased from 1.8 percent in August to 1.1 percent year-over-year, primarily as a result of the lowering of service costs and the decline in energy prices. Core inflation followed suit, declining to from 1.7 percent to just 1.4 percent, matching its weakest mark since August 2021.

The HICP followed this trajectory, dropping a steeper revised 1.3 percent over the month and increasing 1.4 percent on the year.

In sum, today's report shows a clear reduction in inflation pressures that should go well at the ECB. The update puts the French RPI at minus 6, showing overall economic activity within consensus but only due to surprising weak prices. The RPI-P now stands at 15, showing the real economy slightly outperforming expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the provisional data leaving annual CPI inflation at 1.2 percent, down from 1.8 percent in August.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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