New Zealand consumer prices rose 2.2 percent on the year in the three months to September, down from 3.3 percent in the three months to June and matching the consensus forecast. Headline inflation has now fallen for six consecutive quarters and is back within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's target range of 1.0 percent to 3.0 percent for the first time since early 2021. The index advanced 0.6 percent on the quarter after increasing 0.4 previously, also below the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.7 percent.

The fall in headline inflation in the three months to September was largely driven by fuel prices, which fell 8.0 percent on the year, and vegetable prices, down 17.9 percent on the year. Education prices also fell sharply, down 4.0 percent on the year after a previous increase of 5.2 percent, as a result of a government rebate for early childhood education.

The RBNZ reduced the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 4.75 percent at its most recent meeting earlier in the month, following a 25 basis point cut at its previous meeting. In the statement accompanying this month's decision, officials advised that they remain confident that inflation will fall back to within their target range of one percent to three percent this quarter and remain within that range over the forecast horizon. Today's fall in headline inflation may be enough to prompt officials to consider another rate cut at their next scheduled policy meeting late-November, though officials will also note the impact of the education rebate.

New Zealand's consumer price index is expected up 0.7 percent in the third quarter after rising 0.4 percent in the second quarter. Year over year it is estimated up 2.2 percent after rising 3.3 percent last quarter.

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the changing price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by New Zealand households. The selection and relative importance of the goods and services in the CPI basket represents the overall expenditure pattern of New Zealand households.

The aim of the CPI is to measure price changes of the same sample of products at each outlet over time. When there is a change in the size or quality of any of the goods or services in the basket, an adjustment is made to ensure that the price change shown in the CPI is not affected by the change in size or quality.

The CPI represents $88.9 billion spent on goods and services by New Zealand households, at June 2011 quarter prices. This is based on information from the 2009/10 Household Economic Survey and other sources. The CPI has an index reference period of the June 2006 quarter equal to 1000.

A price index measures the change in price between time periods for a given set of goods and services. It summarizes a set of prices for a variety of goods and services collected from a number of outlets. The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets- and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.

The CPI is used to help set monetary policy and for monitoring economic performance. It is used by the government to adjust New Zealand Superannuation and unemployment benefit payments once a year, to help ensure that these payments maintain their purchasing power. Employers and employees use the CPI in wage negotiations.