| Actual | Previous | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.39% | -0.01% | ||
| Year over Year | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% to 2.5% |
Highlights
Chinese retail sales rose 3.2 percent on the year in September, picking up from growth of 2.1 percent in August. This is the biggest year-over-year increase since May but still well below growth recorded last year, with property market weakness continuing to weigh on consumer spending. Auto sales rebounded from a previous fall, while sales of household appliances and audiovisual equipment also rose at a faster pace. In month-over-month terms, retail sales rose 0.39 percent after falling 0.01 percent previously.
Today's data follow a series of policy measures announced by Chinese officials in recent weeks in response to ongoing weakness in the property sector and sluggish growth in consumer spending and manufacturing output. Officials lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate, cut banks' reserve requirements, and announced government spending planned for next year would be brought forward.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy is"generally stable with steady progress" but noted"the complicated and severe external environment" and"new problems of domestic economic development". Officials, however, provided little guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were stronger than consensus expectations. The China's RPI and RPI-P both rose from minus 64 to plus 7, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in just above consensus forecasts.
Today's data follow a series of policy measures announced by Chinese officials in recent weeks in response to ongoing weakness in the property sector and sluggish growth in consumer spending and manufacturing output. Officials lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate, cut banks' reserve requirements, and announced government spending planned for next year would be brought forward.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy is"generally stable with steady progress" but noted"the complicated and severe external environment" and"new problems of domestic economic development". Officials, however, provided little guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were stronger than consensus expectations. The China's RPI and RPI-P both rose from minus 64 to plus 7, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in just above consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters expect a modest improvement in retail sales to 2.5 percent annual growth versus 2.1 percent a month ago.
Definition
Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.
Description
Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.
