ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Quarter over Quarter0.9%0.7%
Year over Year4.6%4.7%4.6%4.4% to 4.7%

Highlights

China's GDP rose 0.9 percent on the quarter in the three months to September, up from growth of 0.7 percent in the three months to June, with year-over-year growth easing from 4.7 percent to 4.6 percent, in line with the consensus forecast. Monthly activity data also published today stronger growth in key activity indicators but a sharper decline in house prices.

Today's data follow a series of policy measures announced by Chinese officials in recent weeks in response to ongoing weakness in the property sector and sluggish growth in consumer spending and manufacturing output. Officials lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate, cut banks' reserve requirements, and announced government spending planned for next year would be brought forward.

In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy is"generally stable with steady progress" but noted"the complicated and severe external environment" and"new problems of domestic economic development". Officials, however, provided little guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.

Data published today were stronger than consensus expectations. The China's RPI and RPI-P both rose from minus 64 to plus 7, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in just above consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

GDP growth on the year is expected to remain stalled at 4.6 percent in the latest reading versus 4.7 percent in the previous report.

Definition

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the final products at market prices produced by all resident units in a country (or a region) during a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of the national accounts, and also an important indicator to measure the economic conditions and the level of development of a country or region. GDP is calculated from three approaches -- production, income and expenditure -- which reflect gross domestic product and its composition from different angles.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

The data are compiled by NBS and the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Estimates for non-financial corporations, financial corporations, general government, household and the rest of the world sectors are published. The production accounts, distribution and use of income account, and capital account data are compiled by NBS. NBS also develops the financial account by rearranging financial transactions data in the flow of funds accounts compiled by PBoC. There are no breakdowns of government consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in inventories and net exports. Household consumption expenditures are broken down into urban and rural. The income components of GDP are only published in the input-output tables. NBS uses the Chinese Industrial Classification of the National Economy.
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