Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.3% | 0.3% to 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | |
Year over Year | 0.8% | 0.7% to 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
Highlights
The third quarter data are disappointingly soft although the absence of any GDP expenditure components makes it difficult to determine underlying trends. Today's update reduces the Italian RPI to minus 18 and the RPI-P to minus 31.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.