The combined producer and import price index unexpectedly declined in September. Prices were down 0.1 percent on the month, trimming the annual inflation rate from August's minus 1.2 percent to minus 1.3 percent, albeit only a 2-month low.

Domestic prices were flat at their August level, leaving their yearly rate also stable at minus 0.2 percent. Import prices fell 0.4 percent, reducing their annual rate from minus 3.4 percent to minus 3.5 percent.

Within the PPI, the main monthly falls were posted by water supply (minus 2.6 percent), clothing and textiles (minus 1.7 percent) and petroleum products (minus 1.5 percent). However, gains here were offset by generally small rises elsewhere. Import prices were driven lower by petroleum which slumped fully 7.6 percent. As a result, total core prices also dipped a monthly 0.1 percent, a small enough drop to lift the annual underlying rate a tick firmer to minus 1.3 percent.

Accordingly, pipeline price pressures remain soft and will be seen as boosting the chances of another cut in the SNB's policy rate in December. Today's update leaves the Swiss RPI at exactly zero and puts the RPI-P at 25. Overall economic activity is matching expectations but only due to the surprising weakness of inflation masking a moderately outperforming real economy.

Prices are expected to edge up 0.1 percent on the month after a 0.2 percent gain in August.

The producer price and import price index focuses on the actual prices of products on the market (transaction price) at the time of the order. The prices of domestic products are taken at the producer or factory level, excluding value added tax and consumption taxes. For imports, prices are collected at the Swiss border, without the value added tax, taxes on consumption and tariffs. Changes in the index provide a guide to inflation from the point of view of the product's producer/manufacturer

The producer price and import price index measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months. Producer and import prices are more volatile than consumer prices. While the CPI is the price index with the most impact in setting interest rates, the producer price and import price index provides significant information earlier in the production process. The producer price and import price index is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace. The bond market rallies when the producer price and import price index decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the index posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.