ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Employment - M/M35,00015,000 to 60,00047,00022,00022,000
Unemployment Rate6.6%6.6% to 6.7%6.5%6.6%6.6%
Participation Rate64.9%65.1%65.1%

Highlights

Employment rose by 47,000 or a mere 0.2 percent in September from August to easily top Econoday's consensus for a 35,000 gain. The unemployment rate dipped to 6.5 percent in September from 6.6 percent in August. Forecasters looked for unemployment to remain at 6.6 percent in September. On a year-over-year basis, the unemployment rate was up by 0.9 percentage points in September.

September's decline in the jobless rate was the first decline since January.

The participation rate fell to 64.9 percent from 65.1 percent in August and versus 65.0 percent in July. The July participation rate was the lowest since June 1998, excluding the pandemic period.

Total hours worked fell 0.4 percent in September but are up 1.2 percent compared with September 2023. Average hourly wages among employees increased 4.6 percent on an annual basis in September, following a 5 percent jump in August.

Employment rose in the information, culture and recreation industry by 22,000 (up 2.6 percent) in September, following seven months of little change. On an annual basis, employment in the industry was up 3.1 percent (+26,000).

In wholesale and retail trade, employment rose 22,000 in September, the first increase since January. However, employment in wholesale and retail trade has generally trended down since August 2023, falling 3.2 percent over the period.

In professional, scientific and technical services, employment increased 1.1 percent in September, offsetting the August's 0.8 percent decline. Compared with the same month a year ago, employment in the industry was up by 3.1 percent.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

In Canada's jobs data, employment is expected to grow 35,000 in September, accelerating from a 22,000 increase in August, while unemployment is estimated to hold steady at 6.6 percent after rising to the level in August from 6.4 percent in July.

Definition

The Labour Force Survey is a key economic indicator giving an overall picture of employment and unemployment. Employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.

Description

As in the U.S., this report is used as an indicator of the health of the domestic economy. Employment trends and break-downs by industry groups highlight the strength in job creation and the implications for future sectoral activity. The unemployment rate is used as an indicator of tightness in labor markets and can foreshadow a future increase in wages. Labor force data provide investors with the earliest signs of industry performance. While other data are produced with a month or two delay, these data are available only a week to 10 days after the end of the latest month. Reactions can be dramatic - especially when the result is unanticipated.

The information in the report is invaluable for investors. By looking at employment trends in the various sectors, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio. If employment in certain industries is growing, there could be investment opportunities in the firms within that industry.

The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.

The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.
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