Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Employment - M/M | 35,000 | 15,000 to 60,000 | 47,000 | 22,000 | 22,000 |
Unemployment Rate | 6.6% | 6.6% to 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
Participation Rate | 64.9% | 65.1% | 65.1% |
Highlights
September's decline in the jobless rate was the first decline since January.
The participation rate fell to 64.9 percent from 65.1 percent in August and versus 65.0 percent in July. The July participation rate was the lowest since June 1998, excluding the pandemic period.
Total hours worked fell 0.4 percent in September but are up 1.2 percent compared with September 2023. Average hourly wages among employees increased 4.6 percent on an annual basis in September, following a 5 percent jump in August.
Employment rose in the information, culture and recreation industry by 22,000 (up 2.6 percent) in September, following seven months of little change. On an annual basis, employment in the industry was up 3.1 percent (+26,000).
In wholesale and retail trade, employment rose 22,000 in September, the first increase since January. However, employment in wholesale and retail trade has generally trended down since August 2023, falling 3.2 percent over the period.
In professional, scientific and technical services, employment increased 1.1 percent in September, offsetting the August's 0.8 percent decline. Compared with the same month a year ago, employment in the industry was up by 3.1 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The information in the report is invaluable for investors. By looking at employment trends in the various sectors, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio. If employment in certain industries is growing, there could be investment opportunities in the firms within that industry.
The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.