| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index | -0.28 | 0.12 | -0.01 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.19 | -0.17 | -0.14 |
Highlights
The Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI) is down to minus 0.28 in September after minus 0.01 in August. The four broad categories of indicators that make up the index show no positive and 4 negative contributions in September. Among the categories 1 increased, 2 decreased, and 1 was unchanged.
The index has been in negative territory for the past four months and continues to signal below average growth. However, the Chicago Fed notes,"Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above 0.35." There is no immediate sign of recession, just ongoing mild expansion.
Production-related indicators are down to minus 0.21 in September after positive 0.04 in August. Sales, orders, and inventories are unchanged at 0.03 in September after minus 0.03 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are down to 0.03 in September after positive 0.00 in August. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are up to minus 0.01 in September after minus 0.03 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in September is minus 0.19 compared to minus 0.14 in the prior month.
The index has been in negative territory for the past four months and continues to signal below average growth. However, the Chicago Fed notes,"Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above 0.35." There is no immediate sign of recession, just ongoing mild expansion.
Production-related indicators are down to minus 0.21 in September after positive 0.04 in August. Sales, orders, and inventories are unchanged at 0.03 in September after minus 0.03 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are down to 0.03 in September after positive 0.00 in August. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are up to minus 0.01 in September after minus 0.03 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in September is minus 0.19 compared to minus 0.14 in the prior month.
Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Description
This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.
