ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Level44.844.8 to 44.851.552.5

Highlights

The UK manufacturing index posts at 51.5, down from August's 26-month high (52.5). It remains unchanged when compared to both the September flash estimate and the consensus.

The PMI posted above the 50-growth threshold indicating expansion of the industry with improvements in output, new orders and suppliers' delivery times. However, employment levels and stocks of purchases both declined. This is likely due to manufacturers looking to mitigate rising input costs by reducing expenditures in other areas.

Manufacturing production rose for the fifth consecutive month in September. The main drivers were the consumer and intermediate goods sectors while the investment goods sector slipped back into contraction, with production and new work inflow contracting for the first time in five months.

Business optimism subsequently dropped to a nine-month low in September with uncertainty relating to possible changes in government policy largely centring around October's Autumn Budget as well as subdued global market conditions.

Average input prices continued to rise in September. This was passed on to clients as increased selling prices.

The latest results put the UK RPI at plus 24 and the RPI-P at plus 20. Overall economic activity is moderately outperforming market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected to the flash estimate.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 3,000 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The survey covers more than 600 industrial companies and is compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the and S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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