Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.3% | 0.0% to 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Year over Year | 1.0% | 0.9% to 1.2% | 0.8% | -0.1% |
Highlights
August's modest monthly gain was roughly evenly split between food, drink and tobacco (0.2 percent) and non-food, excluding auto fuel (0.3 percent). This was the latter's first rise since April.
Regionally, both France (0.5 percent) and Spain (0.4 percent) recorded fresh increases while Italy was only flat. Note that German data, currently still unavailable, are due for release next week.
The August report puts average Eurozone sales volumes in the first two months of the quarter 0.1 percent below their mean level in the April-June period. This means that, absent any revisions, September will need a monthly increase of at least 0.3 percent just to hold the third quarter flat. Accordingly, retail sales continue to trend largely sideways, providing minimal support to economic growth and strengthening the argument for another cut in ECB interest rates next week. That said, with the region's RPI at minus 9 and the RPI-P at minus 1, economic activity in general is still broadly meeting market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.