| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | €11.0B | €15.5B | €13.7B |
| Imports - M/M | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Imports - Y/Y | -2.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% |
| Exports - M/M | -0.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Exports - Y/Y | -2.4% | 10.2% | 9.4% |
Highlights
The Eurozone's seasonally adjusted trade surplus narrowed from a downwardly revised €13.7 billion in July to €11.0 billion in August as exports dipped a monthly 0.1 percent and imports grew 1.0 percent. This was the least black ink since October 2023.
Unadjusted, the surplus was little changed at €4.6 billion, just €0.2 billion less than its post a year ago. Exports were 2.4 percent weaker on the year after July's 9.4 percent rise while imports were down a marginally smaller 2.3 percent following a 3.6 percent gain.
The August update leaves an essentially flat trend to exports and a modesty rising profile to imports. Today's reports trim the Eurozone RPI to minus 9 and puts the RPI-P at exactly zero. Real economic activity is moving in line with market expectations despite some downside surprises on inflation.
Unadjusted, the surplus was little changed at €4.6 billion, just €0.2 billion less than its post a year ago. Exports were 2.4 percent weaker on the year after July's 9.4 percent rise while imports were down a marginally smaller 2.3 percent following a 3.6 percent gain.
The August update leaves an essentially flat trend to exports and a modesty rising profile to imports. Today's reports trim the Eurozone RPI to minus 9 and puts the RPI-P at exactly zero. Real economic activity is moving in line with market expectations despite some downside surprises on inflation.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. For the Eurozone, monthly data are available for trade in goods; statistics on services are released as part of the overall quarterly current account report. The headline trade data are not adjusted for seasonal factors and so should only be viewed in relation to the outturn a year ago. However, seasonally adjusted figures available elsewhere in the report do allow for monthly comparisons.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the local currency dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services. Exports show the demand for Eurozone goods in countries overseas. The euro can be particularly sensitive to changes in the balance since a trade deficit/surplus can create greater/reduced demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of EMU trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services. Exports show the demand for Eurozone goods in countries overseas. The euro can be particularly sensitive to changes in the balance since a trade deficit/surplus can create greater/reduced demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of EMU trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
