Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
Year over Year | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
Highlights
Within the region's quarterly advance, France expanded 0.4 percent, in large part due to the effects of the Paris Olympics, and Spain a solid 0.8 percent, matching its second quarter gain. Germany surprised on the upside with a 0.2 percent rise, although this followed a weaker revised second quarter, while Italy disappointed as GDP only stagnated. Elsewhere, Ireland climbed fully 2.0 percent and Lithuania 1.1 percent but Latvia remained in recession with a 0.4 percent contraction. There were no other outright declines.
Lacking any expenditure components, the provisional headline third quarter data probably flatter to deceive and conceal another quarter of sluggish private sector domestic demand. In any event, they are not strong enough to undermine expectations for another cut in ECB interest rates in December. That said, today's reports lift the Eurozone RPI to 6 and the RPI-P to 8, both measures showing a marginal degree of overall economic underperformance versus market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.