| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | $-95.8B | $-101.0B to $-93.0B | $-108.2B | $-94.3B | $-94.2B |
| Imports - M/M | 3.8% | -1.6% | -1.4% | ||
| Exports - M/M | -2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% |
Highlights
The US international trade in goods deficit was $108.2 billion in September, up $14 billion from a revised $94.2 billion in August, and compared to the consensus of $95.8 billion in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
Exports of goods in September fell 2.0 percent, compared to a 2.9 percent jump in August, and are up 1.1 percent compared to September 2023. Goods imports for September jumped 3.8 percent, following a 1.4 percent drop in August, and surged by 9.3 percent when compared to September 2023.
The first estimate of third quarter GDP will released this week and - with net exports calculated as a subtraction from growth - this data could be an early sign of slower economic activity in the third quarter. Some forecasters have already reduced GDP forecasts by a few tenths in response to the wider than expected trade gap.
Exports of goods in September fell 2.0 percent, compared to a 2.9 percent jump in August, and are up 1.1 percent compared to September 2023. Goods imports for September jumped 3.8 percent, following a 1.4 percent drop in August, and surged by 9.3 percent when compared to September 2023.
The first estimate of third quarter GDP will released this week and - with net exports calculated as a subtraction from growth - this data could be an early sign of slower economic activity in the third quarter. Some forecasters have already reduced GDP forecasts by a few tenths in response to the wider than expected trade gap.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The advance trade report is expected to show the goods deficit widened to $95.8 billion in September from $94.3 billion in August.
Definition
This monthly report offers advance import and export data on the goods components of the monthly trade report. Goods make up roughly two-thirds of the nation's exports and roughly three-quarters of imports.
Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in cross-border ownership.
Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in cross-border ownership.
Description
Changes in the levels of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance), are valuable gauges of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods here in the United States. Exports show foreign demand for U.S. goods. The dollar can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United States, since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies.
Market reaction to this report is complex. Typically, the smaller the trade deficit, the more bullish it is for the dollar. Also, stronger exports are bullish for corporate earnings and the stock market. Like most economic indicators, the trade balance is subject to substantial monthly variability, especially when oil prices change.
It is also useful to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately because they can deviate significantly. Trends in export activity reflect both the competitive position of American industry and the strength of domestic and foreign economic activity. U.S. exports will grow when: 1) U.S. product prices are lower than foreign product prices; 2) the value of the dollar is relatively weaker than that of foreign currencies; 3) foreign economies are growing rapidly.
Imports will increase when: 1) foreign product prices are lower than prices of domestically-produced goods; 2) the value of the dollar is stronger than that of other currencies; 3) domestic demand for goods and services is robust.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods here in the United States. Exports show foreign demand for U.S. goods. The dollar can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United States, since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies.
Market reaction to this report is complex. Typically, the smaller the trade deficit, the more bullish it is for the dollar. Also, stronger exports are bullish for corporate earnings and the stock market. Like most economic indicators, the trade balance is subject to substantial monthly variability, especially when oil prices change.
It is also useful to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately because they can deviate significantly. Trends in export activity reflect both the competitive position of American industry and the strength of domestic and foreign economic activity. U.S. exports will grow when: 1) U.S. product prices are lower than foreign product prices; 2) the value of the dollar is relatively weaker than that of foreign currencies; 3) foreign economies are growing rapidly.
Imports will increase when: 1) foreign product prices are lower than prices of domestically-produced goods; 2) the value of the dollar is stronger than that of other currencies; 3) domestic demand for goods and services is robust.
