| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales - M/M | 0.3% | 0.2% to 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| Ex-Vehicles - M/M | 0.1% | 0.0% to 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M | 0.3% | 0.1% to 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Highlights
The dollar value of retail and food services sales is up 0.4 percent in September from August after an unrevised up 0.1 percent in August from July. The increase is a tenth above the consensus of up 0.3 percent in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
Sales of motor vehicles are unchanged in September from August. An uptick in units sold in September did not translate into a higher dollar amount. Sales at gasoline service stations are down 1.6 percent in September from the prior month and reflect declining prices for motor fuels during the month. In September, motor vehicles accounted for 18.7 percent of the retail sales total and gasoline was a 7.2 percent share.
Retail sales excluding motor vehicles is up 0.5 percent in September from August after a small upward revision to up 0.2 percent in August from the prior month. The increase is well above the consensus of up 0.1 percent in the Econoday survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline are up 0.7 percent in September from August and revised up a tenth to up 0.3 percent in August from July. This matches the consensus in the Econoday survey.
Where retail sales are strong in September suggests that purchases are along the lines of back-to-school merchandise, and perhaps some emergency preparedness spending.
Sales of clothing and accessories are up 1.5 percent in September. Many students wait to shop for clothing until after the start of school when peers' fashion choices can be taken into account. There are also increases of 0.5 percent for general merchandise stores and 0.3 percent for sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and bookstores which could include some last minute school needs. Also sales at health and personal care stores are up 1.1 percent.
Some consumers are eating out more with a 1.0 percent increase in restaurant sales and there is a 1.0 percent rise for food and beverage stores. It is possible that households without power ate at those restaurants that were open, and/or some stocking up happened before or after Hurricane Helene hit. There was also a rush to buys some items related to worries about the impact of dockworkers strike on the supply chain for consumer goods.
Sales at nonstore retailers which include online stores are up 0.4 percent in September and account for 17.4 percent of the sales total.
Sales of motor vehicles are unchanged in September from August. An uptick in units sold in September did not translate into a higher dollar amount. Sales at gasoline service stations are down 1.6 percent in September from the prior month and reflect declining prices for motor fuels during the month. In September, motor vehicles accounted for 18.7 percent of the retail sales total and gasoline was a 7.2 percent share.
Retail sales excluding motor vehicles is up 0.5 percent in September from August after a small upward revision to up 0.2 percent in August from the prior month. The increase is well above the consensus of up 0.1 percent in the Econoday survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline are up 0.7 percent in September from August and revised up a tenth to up 0.3 percent in August from July. This matches the consensus in the Econoday survey.
Where retail sales are strong in September suggests that purchases are along the lines of back-to-school merchandise, and perhaps some emergency preparedness spending.
Sales of clothing and accessories are up 1.5 percent in September. Many students wait to shop for clothing until after the start of school when peers' fashion choices can be taken into account. There are also increases of 0.5 percent for general merchandise stores and 0.3 percent for sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and bookstores which could include some last minute school needs. Also sales at health and personal care stores are up 1.1 percent.
Some consumers are eating out more with a 1.0 percent increase in restaurant sales and there is a 1.0 percent rise for food and beverage stores. It is possible that households without power ate at those restaurants that were open, and/or some stocking up happened before or after Hurricane Helene hit. There was also a rush to buys some items related to worries about the impact of dockworkers strike on the supply chain for consumer goods.
Sales at nonstore retailers which include online stores are up 0.4 percent in September and account for 17.4 percent of the sales total.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Retail sales are expected to show relatively muted gains for September with the headline figure up 0.3 percent and sales ex-autos up a less impressive 0.1 percent. Sales ex-autos and gas are seen up 0.3 percent.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. Of special attention is the control group; this is an input into the consumer spending component of GDP and excludes food services, autos, gasoline and building materials.
Description
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know how the consumer sector is faring, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth becomes excessive and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
Balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001, but then rebounded at a healthy pace between 2003 and 2005. By 2007, the credit crunch was well underway and starting to undermine growth in consumer spending. Later in 2008 and 2009, the rise in unemployment and loss of income during the recession also cut into retail sales. Spending rebounded in 2010 and 2011 but was constrained by lingering high unemployment.
Importance
Retail sales are a major indicator of consumer spending trends because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity. The control group for retail sales (which excludes restaurants, vehicles, gasoline and building materials) is an input into GDP and offers a narrower look at nondiscretionary spending.
Interpretation
Strong retail sales are bearish for the bond market, but favorable for the stock market, particularly retail stocks. Sluggish retail sales could lead to a bond market rally, but will probably be bearish for the stock market.
Retail sales are subject to substantial month-to-month variability. In order to provide a more accurate picture of the consumer spending trend, follow the three-month moving average of the monthly percent changes or the year-over-year percent change. Retail sales are also subject to substantial monthly revisions, which makes it more difficult to discern the underlying trend. This problem underscores the need to monitor the moving average rather than just the latest one month of data.
In an attempt to avoid the more extreme volatility, economists and financial market participants monitor retail sales less autos (actually less auto dealers which include trucks, too.) Motor vehicle sales are excluded not because they are irrelevant, but because they fluctuate more than overall retail sales. In recent years, many analysts consider the core series to be total less autos and less gasoline service station sales. The latter is volatile due to swings in oil and gasoline prices.
Price changes affect the real value of retail sales. Watch for changes in food and energy prices which could affect two large components among nondurable goods stores: food stores and gasoline service stations. Large declines in food or energy prices could lead to declines in store sales which are due to price, not volume. This would mean that real sales were stronger than nominal dollar sales.
Since economic performance depend on real, rather than nominal growth rates, compare the trend growth rate in retail sales to that in the CPI for commodities.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth becomes excessive and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
Balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001, but then rebounded at a healthy pace between 2003 and 2005. By 2007, the credit crunch was well underway and starting to undermine growth in consumer spending. Later in 2008 and 2009, the rise in unemployment and loss of income during the recession also cut into retail sales. Spending rebounded in 2010 and 2011 but was constrained by lingering high unemployment.
Importance
Retail sales are a major indicator of consumer spending trends because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity. The control group for retail sales (which excludes restaurants, vehicles, gasoline and building materials) is an input into GDP and offers a narrower look at nondiscretionary spending.
Interpretation
Strong retail sales are bearish for the bond market, but favorable for the stock market, particularly retail stocks. Sluggish retail sales could lead to a bond market rally, but will probably be bearish for the stock market.
Retail sales are subject to substantial month-to-month variability. In order to provide a more accurate picture of the consumer spending trend, follow the three-month moving average of the monthly percent changes or the year-over-year percent change. Retail sales are also subject to substantial monthly revisions, which makes it more difficult to discern the underlying trend. This problem underscores the need to monitor the moving average rather than just the latest one month of data.
In an attempt to avoid the more extreme volatility, economists and financial market participants monitor retail sales less autos (actually less auto dealers which include trucks, too.) Motor vehicle sales are excluded not because they are irrelevant, but because they fluctuate more than overall retail sales. In recent years, many analysts consider the core series to be total less autos and less gasoline service station sales. The latter is volatile due to swings in oil and gasoline prices.
Price changes affect the real value of retail sales. Watch for changes in food and energy prices which could affect two large components among nondurable goods stores: food stores and gasoline service stations. Large declines in food or energy prices could lead to declines in store sales which are due to price, not volume. This would mean that real sales were stronger than nominal dollar sales.
Since economic performance depend on real, rather than nominal growth rates, compare the trend growth rate in retail sales to that in the CPI for commodities.
