| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import Prices - M/M | -0.3% | -0.6% to 0.3% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| Import Prices - Y/Y | -0.1% | 0.8% | |||
| Export Prices - M/M | -0.4% | -0.7% to -0.1% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.9% |
| Export Prices - Y/Y | -2.1% | -0.7% | -0.9% |
Highlights
The import price index is down 0.4 percent in September from August after a small upward revision to down 0.2 percent in August from July. The September decrease is just below the consensus of down 0.3 percent in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The import price index is down 0.1 percent compared to a year ago. Generally, costs for imported goods have eased significantly and are not a major source of upward prices pressures for inflation.
The index for fuel imports is down 7.0 percent month-over-month in September while the index for nonfuel imports is up 0.1 percent month-over-month. Imported fuel prices are down 7.1 percent in September for petroleum and products, down 14.5 percent for natural gas, and down 5.8 for coals and gas. The index for imported foods, feeds and beverages is down 1.5 in September, and industrial supplies are down 1.8 percent.
The index for imported capital goods is unchanged in September from August, up 0.2 percent for automotive, and up 0.2 percent for consumer goods excluding automotive.
The index for import air freight services is up 4.8 percent in September from the prior month and up 21.0 percent from a year ago. The cost of bringing goods into the US by air will continue to be a source of upward price pressure for some commodities. Import passenger air fares are up 13.9 percent in September from August and 0.7 percent higher than a year ago.
The export price index is down 0.7 percent in September from August after revision lower to down 0.9 percent in August from July. The September decrease is below the consensus of down 0.4 percent in the Econoday survey. The export price index is down 2.1 percent from September 2023.
The index for exported agricultural commodities is up 0.6 percent in September from August while the index for nonagricultural commodities is down 0.9 percent. The export price index for foods, feeds, and beverages is up 0.9 percent in September. The index for industrial supplies and materials is down 2.4 percent.
The export capital goods index is up 0.2 percent in September from August, automotive is down 0.1 percent, and consumer goods excluding automotive is up 0.3 percent.
The index for export air freight services is down 0.7 percent in September from the prior month and down 4.3 percent from a year ago. The index for export air passenger fare is down 1.4 percent in September and down 0.9 percent from a year ago. The cost of travel abroad has moderated and shipping goods out is a somewhat lower.
The index for fuel imports is down 7.0 percent month-over-month in September while the index for nonfuel imports is up 0.1 percent month-over-month. Imported fuel prices are down 7.1 percent in September for petroleum and products, down 14.5 percent for natural gas, and down 5.8 for coals and gas. The index for imported foods, feeds and beverages is down 1.5 in September, and industrial supplies are down 1.8 percent.
The index for imported capital goods is unchanged in September from August, up 0.2 percent for automotive, and up 0.2 percent for consumer goods excluding automotive.
The index for import air freight services is up 4.8 percent in September from the prior month and up 21.0 percent from a year ago. The cost of bringing goods into the US by air will continue to be a source of upward price pressure for some commodities. Import passenger air fares are up 13.9 percent in September from August and 0.7 percent higher than a year ago.
The export price index is down 0.7 percent in September from August after revision lower to down 0.9 percent in August from July. The September decrease is below the consensus of down 0.4 percent in the Econoday survey. The export price index is down 2.1 percent from September 2023.
The index for exported agricultural commodities is up 0.6 percent in September from August while the index for nonagricultural commodities is down 0.9 percent. The export price index for foods, feeds, and beverages is up 0.9 percent in September. The index for industrial supplies and materials is down 2.4 percent.
The export capital goods index is up 0.2 percent in September from August, automotive is down 0.1 percent, and consumer goods excluding automotive is up 0.3 percent.
The index for export air freight services is down 0.7 percent in September from the prior month and down 4.3 percent from a year ago. The index for export air passenger fare is down 1.4 percent in September and down 0.9 percent from a year ago. The cost of travel abroad has moderated and shipping goods out is a somewhat lower.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices are seen down 0.3 percent and export prices down 0.4 percent on the month.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices, which exclude tariffs and taxes, measure underlying inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Description
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures. It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
