Initial jobless claims are up 33,000 in the week ending October 5 after no revision to 225,000 in the prior week. The October 5 level exceeds the 226,000 consensus in the Econoday survey of forecasters and is the highest initial claims level since the week ending August 5, 2023. The four-week moving average is up 6,750 to 231,000 in the October 5 week after 224,250 in the prior week.

The jump in claims is not unexpected, and future levels are likely to again see an upward impact from both Hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as - to a lesser extent - the ongoing strikes at Boeing.

Insured unemployment is up 42,000 in the September 28 week to 1.861 million after 1.819 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average is up 4,500 to 1.832 million after 1.827 million in the September 21 week. The insured rate of unemployment remains steady at 1.2 percent in the September 28 week and has seen almost no variation since March 2023. Like the numbers of new claims, there will probably be a temporary increase in the overall numbers in coming weeks.

Initial jobless claims in the US are estimated to increase to 226,000 from 225,000 the prior week. The labor market is slowing but still solid.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.