Initial jobless claims are up 6,000 in the week ending September 28 after a minor upward revision to 219,000 in the prior week. The September 28 level matches the consensus in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The four-week moving average is down 750 to 224,250 in the September 28 week after 225,000 in the prior week. The underlying trend for new filings for unemployment benefits as of the current data is still largely unaffected by recent developments. However, claims are likely to rise sharply, if temporarily, due to the wide area of destruction related to Hurricane Helena and to a lesser extent from the strikes at Boeing and US ports along the East and Gulf coasts.

Insured unemployment is essentially unchanged in the September 21 week. The level is down 1,000 to 1.826 million after 1.827 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average is down 4,750 to 1.829 million after 1.834 million in the September 14 week. The insured rate of unemployment remains steady at 1.2 percent in the September 21 and has seen almost no variation since March 2023. Like the numbers of new claims, there will probably be a temporary increase in the overall numbers in coming weeks.

The consensus for initial claims in the September 28 week is at 225,000.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.