The September findings were a good deal stronger than expected. Having undershot forecasts in August, this month's sales balance climbed fully 31 percentage points to 4 percent, some 23 percentage points above the market consensus and its first positive print since May. In addition, at 5 percent, the CBI's forecast for October is the highest since April 2023.

Even so, it was not all goods news as retailers reported sales below normal for the time of year and consumers remain cautious ahead of what is expected to be a tight budget next month. Still, today's data boost the UK RPI and RPI-P to 1 and minus 4 respectively, both measures close enough to zero to indicate overall economic activity now running much as expected.

The sales balance is expected to climb from minus 27 percent in August to a still weak minus 19 percent.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.

This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.