The CBI's September trends survey found orders still weak and falling by more than expected. At minus 35 percent, the headline balance was down 13 percentage points versus August and almost as far short of the market consensus. The latest print matched the lowest since January 2021 and, accordingly, moved further below its long-run average of minus 13 percent.

Today's poor results contrast with the flash sector PMI findings released earlier. In practice, something between the two probably gives the best idea of actual developments. In any event, the CBI update reduces the UK RPI to minus 14 and the RPI-P to minus 21, both measures indicating a limited degree of recent overall economic underperformance.

The orders balance is expected to worsen marginally from minus 22 percent in August to minus 23 percent.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.

Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.

Frequency
Monthly and quarterly