Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
Year over Year | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
HICP - M/M | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
HICP - Y/Y | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
Highlights
Year-over-year, inflation decreased from 2.3 percent in July to 1.8 percent, primarily due to the deceleration in energy prices. Nevertheless, the cost of services continued to increase, with a 3.0 percent rise. The slight increase in core inflation to 1.7 percent indicates that there are still latent inflationary pressures. This delicate balance between declining energy costs and increasing service prices is indicative of a dynamic inflation environment in which short-term fluctuations, such as post-sale rebounds, mask more subdued long-term trends.
The harmonised index of consumer prices also demonstrated a decrease in annual growth, with a reduction from 2.7 percent in July to 2.2 percent, suggesting a general softening of the inflation trajectory. Over the month, however, it increased to 0.6 percent from 0.2 percent in July. The September update raises the RPI to 11 and RPI-P to 15, meaning that the French economy is outperforming market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.