| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | A$5.0B | A$4.5B to A$6.2B | A$6.009B | A$5.589B | A$5.425B |
| Imports - M/M | -0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | ||
| Imports - Y/Y | 8.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | ||
| Exports - M/M | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | ||
| Exports -Y/Y | -1.4% | -4.5% | -4.4% |
Highlights
Australia's goods trade surplus widened from a revised A$5.425 billion in June to A$6.009 billion in July, above the consensus forecast of A$5.0 billion. Exports grew at a slower monthly pace while imports fell after a previous increase.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 0.7 percent on the month in July after an increase of 1.4 percent in June. Exports of non-rural goods fell 0.4 percent after increasing 0.1 percent previously, while growth in exports of rural goods slowed from 7.5 percent to 6.0 percent. Exports fell 1.4 percent on the year in July after a decline of 4.4 percent in June.
Seasonally adjusted imports fell 0.8 percent on the month in July, weakening from an increase of 0.4 percent in June. Imports of capital goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods weakened, partly offset by stronger growth in imports of consumption goods. Total imports rose 8.4 percent on the year in July after advancing 2.4 percent in June.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 0.7 percent on the month in July after an increase of 1.4 percent in June. Exports of non-rural goods fell 0.4 percent after increasing 0.1 percent previously, while growth in exports of rural goods slowed from 7.5 percent to 6.0 percent. Exports fell 1.4 percent on the year in July after a decline of 4.4 percent in June.
Seasonally adjusted imports fell 0.8 percent on the month in July, weakening from an increase of 0.4 percent in June. Imports of capital goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods weakened, partly offset by stronger growth in imports of consumption goods. Total imports rose 8.4 percent on the year in July after advancing 2.4 percent in June.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consensus for international trade in goods in July is a surplus of A$5.0 billion versus June's A$5.6 billion surplus that compared with expectations for A$5.0 billion.
Definition
The Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
