ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter0.8%0.7% to 0.9%0.7%0.8%
Annual Rate3.2%2.6% to 3.8%2.9%3.1%
Year over Year-0.8%-1.0% to -0.6%-1.0%-0.8%

Highlights

Japan's strong rebound in the gross domestic product for the April-June quarter was revised down slightly in the second reading as capex was slightly softer than previously thought. The real GDP growth was 0.7 percent on quarter, or an annualized 2.9 percent, versus the initial estimate of 0.8 percent and 3.1 percent. Consumption and business investment picked up after having been hit by suspended output at Toyota group factories over a safety test scandal. The economy suffered its first contraction in two quarters in January-March.

Key components in percentage change on quarter or contribution in percentage points. Preliminary figures are in parentheses.

GDP quarter over quarter: plus 0.7 percent (plus 0.8 percent)
GDP annualized: plus 2.9 percent (plus 3.1 percent)
GDP year over year: minus 1.0 percent (minus 0.8 percent)
Private consumption: plus 0.5 point (plus 0.5 percent)
Business investment: plus 0.2 point (plus 0.1 percent)
Public investment: plus 0.2 point (plus 4.5 percent)
Private sector inventories: minus 0.1 point (minus 0.1 point)
Net exports (external demand): minus 0.1 point (minus 0.1 point)
Domestic demand: plus 0.8 point (plus 0.9 point)

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Japan's stronger-than-expected rebound in the gross domestic product for the April-June quarter is expected to be little changed in the second reading, with public works spending seen revised up slightly. The real GDP is forecast to have grown an unrevised 0.8 percent on quarter in the second quarter, or an annualized 3.2 percent, revised up slightly from the initial estimate of 3.1 percent. Consumption and business investment picked up after having been hit by suspended output at Toyota group factories over a safety test scandal. The economy suffered its first contraction in two quarters in January-March.

Consensus forecasts for key components in percentage change on quarter except for private inventories and net exports, whose contributions are in percentage points. Preliminary figures are in parentheses.

GDP quarter over quarter: plus 0.8 percent (plus 0.8 percent)
GDP annualized: plus 3.2 percent (plus 3.1 percent)
GDP year over year: minus 0.8 percent (minus 0.8 percent)
Private consumption: plus 1.0 percent (plus 1.0 percent)
Business investment: plus 0.9 percent (plus 0.9 percent)
Public investment: plus 4.7 percent (plus 4.5 percent)
Private sector inventories: plus 0.2 point (plus 0.2 point)
Net exports (external demand): minus 0.1 point (minus 0.1 point)
Domestic demand: plus 0.9 point (plus 0.9 point)

Definition

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.

Description

Gross domestic product is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Investors in the stock market like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. Bond investors are more highly sensitive to inflation and robust economic activity could potentially pave the road to inflation. By tracking economic data such as GDP, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.

The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.
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