Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -0.6% | -2.8% to 0.2% | -1.7% | 0.1% |
Year over Year | 1.0% | -2.0% to 2.6% | 0.1% | -1.4% |
Highlights
The core measure of real average household spending (excluding housing, motor vehicles and remittance), a key indicator used in GDP calculation, dipped 0.8 percent after rising 1.3 percent in June for the first increase in 16 months.
The overall spending rise came in much weaker than the median forecast of a 1.0 percent increase and followed a 1.4 percent decline in June, an unexpected 1.8 percent slump in May, and a 0.5 percent gain in April which was the first rise in 14 months.
The increase was led by high spending on a volatile factor of home maintenance and repairs including installations of induction cooktops (too hot to use gas stoves?), as well as on TVs (replacement demand amid Paris Summer Olympics), laptops and domestic package tours. It was largely offset by drops in transport equipment other than automobiles (motorcycles), car parts and gift money.
Compared to the previous month, real average expenditures by households with two or more people plunged a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent, as the killer heat wave intensified, after edging up 0.1 percent and falling the previous two months. Record high temperatures in many regions propped up demand for air conditioners, refrigerators and beverages but it was dangerous to stay outdoors. It was much weaker than the median forecast of a 0.6 percent slip.
Econoday's Relative Performance Index stands at minus 23, below zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing worse than expected after underperforming with a narrower margin recently. Excluding the impact of inflation, the RPI is at minus 71.
The average real income of households with salaried workers rose 5.5 percent in July after rising 3.1 percent in June. In nominal terms, the average income grew 8.1 percent following a 6.5 percent gain the previous month. This indicates that a high pace of wage growth by Japanese standards is spreading to smaller firms that employ about 70 percent of the workforce.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
On the month, real average expenditures by households with two or more people are expected to slump 0.6 percent after edging up 0.1 percent and falling the previous two months.Record high temperatures in many regions propped up demand for air conditioners, refrigerators and beverages but it was dangerous to stay outdoors.