ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Rate2.7%2.6% to 2.7%2.5%2.7%

Highlights

Japanese payrolls posted their 25th straight rise on year in August amid widespread labor shortages. The unemployment rate improved to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent in July, matching the 2.5 percent rate in June and coming in lower than the consensus call of 2.7 percent. Job losses and retirements fell a seasonally adjusted 13.0 percent on the month while the number of people who quit for better positions also plunged 13.6 percent after rising 9.5 percent in July, which was the main factor for the higher jobless rate then.

Employment surged 420,000 on the year to 68.15 million in August after rising 230,000 in July. The number of unemployed fell a sharp 110,000 to 1.75 million, marking the first drop in five months after rising 50,000 in July. The high pace of job creation was led by a continued sharp rise in research/tech services and a renewed hiring spree by hotels/restaurants. Manufacturing jobs rebounded after recent drops while medical/welfare services trimmed some positions after a jump in July.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 25th straight rise on year in August amid widespread labor shortages. The unemployment rate is forecast at 2.7 percent, unchanged from July, when it unexpectedly worsened to the level from 2.5 percent in June but that was because a lot more people quit to look for better openings. Some project a slight improvement to 2.6 percent. In July, sharp gains in medical/welfare and academic/tech services led the employment gain. Manufacturers and transporters continued trimming jobs from year-earlier levels.

In its monthly economic report for September, the government continued to describe employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement." It maintained its overall economic assessment, saying the economy is recovering"moderately."

Definition

The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.

Description

The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.

By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
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