| Actual | Previous | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -0.01% | 0.35% | |
| Year over Year | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
Highlights
Chinese retail sales rose 2.1 percent on the year in August, slowing from growth of 2.7 percent in July and growth of 2.0 percent in June. Note the latter was the lowest rate since December 2022. In month-over-month terms, retail sales in August fell 0.01 percent after advancing 0.35 percent previously.
Officials characterised the monthly data published today as showing that"the national economy maintained stability in general while making steady progress", broadly in line with comments made in recent months. However, they also cautioned that"the adverse impacts arising from the changes in the external environment are increasing, effective demands remain insufficient at home, and the sustained economic recovery is still confronted with multiple difficulties and challenges". Officials, however, provided little guidance about whether changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were slightly weaker than consensus expectations. The China's RPI and RPI-P fell from minus 43 and minus 40 to minus 64 and minus 70 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming well below consensus forecasts.
Officials characterised the monthly data published today as showing that"the national economy maintained stability in general while making steady progress", broadly in line with comments made in recent months. However, they also cautioned that"the adverse impacts arising from the changes in the external environment are increasing, effective demands remain insufficient at home, and the sustained economic recovery is still confronted with multiple difficulties and challenges". Officials, however, provided little guidance about whether changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were slightly weaker than consensus expectations. The China's RPI and RPI-P fell from minus 43 and minus 40 to minus 64 and minus 70 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming well below consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
After rising a slightly higher-than-expected 2.7 percent in July, year-over-year sales in August are are expected to slow to 2.3 percent.
Definition
Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.
Description
Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.
