ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.2%0.2%0.2%
Year over Year1.1%1.1%1.1%
HICP - M/M-0.1%-0.2%-0.1%
HICP - Y/Y1.3%1.2%1.3%

Highlights

August 2024 saw a 0.2 percent month-over-month increase in Italy's consumer price index and a 1.1 percent year-over-year rise, indicating a slight decrease in inflation from the 1.3 percent figure in July. Unregulated energy product prices, durable commodities, and housing-related services were the primary factors contributing to the decline. Nevertheless, the cost of regulated energy increased by 14.3 percent, from 11.7 percent, in conjunction with an increase in the prices of semi-durable products and transport services.

Inflation excluding energy remained at 1.8 percent, while core inflation remained constant at 1.9 percent. The inflationary gap between commodities fell by 0.5 percent and services rose by 3.2 percent, which is indicative of the divergent price pressures. The annual growth rate of grocery and unprocessed food prices decreased to 0.6 percent, despite a modest increase of 0.1 percent month-over-month.

Despite a 0.2 percent monthly decline in the harmonised index of consumer prices as a result of seasonal sales, the index posted a 1.2 percent annual increase, a decrease from the 1.6 percent increase in July. This indicates a restrained inflationary environment. This mix of energy-driven volatility and stable core inflation hints at complex price dynamics within the Italian economy, taking this country's RPI to minus 15 and RPI-P to minus 6.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the Italy where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Italy's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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