| U.S. Grain Stocks (1000 Bushels) | ||||||
| 2023 | 2024 | |||||
| On Farms | Off Farms | Total | On Farms | Off Farms | Total | |
| Corn | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 4,105,000 | 3,291,403 | 7,396,403 | 5,079,000 | 3,273,378 | 8,352,378 |
| Jun 1 | 2,216,800 | 1,886,509 | 4,103,309 | 3,026,000 | 1,971,048 | 4,997,048 |
| Sep 1 | 604,400 | 755,801 | 1,360,201 | 780,400 | 980,060 | 1,760,460 |
| Dec 1 | 7,830,000 | 4,341,163 | 12,171,163 | - | - | - |
| All Wheat | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 227,485 | 713,733 | 941,218 | 271,930 | 816,779 | 1,088,709 |
| Jun 1 | 124,420 | 445,148 | 569,568 | 138,915 | 557,519 | 696,434 |
| Sep 1 | 598,140 | 1,168,981 | 1,767,121 | 663,760 | 1,321,964 | 1,985,724 |
| Dec 1 | 401,060 | 1,020,019 | 1,421,079 | - | - | - |
| Soybeans | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 749,500 | 937,132 | 1,686,632 | 933,000 | 911,824 | 1,844,824 |
| Jun 1 | 322,800 | 473,588 | 796,388 | 466,000 | 504,050 | 970,050 |
| Sep 1 | 72,000 | 192,184 | 264,184 | 111,200 | 230,810 | 342,010 |
| Dec 1 | 1,453,000 | 1,547,719 | 3,000,719 | - | - | - |
| USDA September 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks Pre-Report Estimates | ||||
| Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
| Corn | 1,846 | 1,754 | 2,017 | 1,360 |
| Soybeans | 347 | 323 | 360 | 264 |
| Wheat | 1,992 | 1,800 | 2,090 | 1,767 |
Highlights
SOYBEANS:
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed September 1 soybean stocks at 342 million bushels (the highest since 2020) versus an average expectation of 347 million bushels and a range of expectations from 323 to 360 million. September 1, 2023 stocks were 264 million bushels. On-farm soybean stocks were 111 million bushels, up 54% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 231 million bushels, up 20% from a year ago. USDA revised 2023/24 bean production down 2.62 million bushels and lowered harvested area slightly to 82.3 million acres.
PRICE OUTLOOK: With soybean stocks coming in slightly below estimates, futures had a minor rally as the report was released. But November beans have fallen back to a couple cents lower on the day post-report. The recent rally of $1.15 a bushel since mid-August has not yet reached any major technical objective. Significant resistance should be seen at the 100-day moving average at 1078 and at the 50% retracement to the summer highs at 1091. Price action suggests further gains, but the US harvest should accelerate quickly this week with dry weather across all of the Midwest, and harvest pressure is likely to limit the upside potential above 1080.
CORN:
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed September 1 corn stocks at 1.760 billion bushels (the highest since 2020) versus an average expectation of 1.846 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 1.754 to 2.017 billion. September 1 stocks last year were 1.36 billion. On-farm corn stocks were 780 million bushels, up 29% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 980 million bushels, up 30% from a year ago. USDA revised 2023/24 corn production down 1.08 million bushels and cut harvested area 7,000 acres to 86.5 million.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Corn stocks came in below estimates and futures prices moved up to their highest level since June 28th post-report. This morning's technical price breakout paints a positive outlook for further gains to the upside. Next significant resistance is the 100-day moving average at 429. 50% retracement resistance to the May highs is 440. With the US Dollar hovering near the lows of the year, exports are likely to continue to stay strong, providing demand-led support on breaks.
WHEAT:
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed September 1 wheat stocks at 1.986 billion bushels (up 12% from year ago) versus an average expectation of 1.992 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 1.8 to 2.03 billion. September 1 stocks last year were 1.767 billion. On-farm wheat stocks were 47.1 million bushels, up 42% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 20.2 million bushels, down 16% from a year ago. The Small Grains Report showed 2024/25 All Wheat production at 1.971 billion bushels, versus an average of 1.983 billion and a range of 1.959 and 2.02 Billion. All Winter Wheat production came in at 1.35 billion bushels, versus an average of 1.36 million and a range of 1.34 and 1.382 million. Hard-Red Winter was 770.4 million bushels versus the average estimate of 766 million. Soft-Red Winter was 342.4 versus 342 estimated. White Winter was 236.5 versus 242 estimated. Other Spring 542.3 versus 545 estimated. Durum 80.1 versus 77 estimated.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Wheat stocks were a bit higher than the guesses, as was the All US Wheat production number, but post-report price action has been friendly, nonetheless. SRW and HRW production came in right on the estimates with no surprises there. Weather issues in the Black Sea, EU, and Argentine wheat are supportive underlying factors, and over the last 9 sessions, prices have continued to hold 20-day moving average support. Furthermore, The US southern Plains is drying down and more rain is needed for fall sowing. A breakout above last week's high at 596 1/4 would open the door for a run to longer term resistance between 608?617 on Chicago December.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed September 1 soybean stocks at 342 million bushels (the highest since 2020) versus an average expectation of 347 million bushels and a range of expectations from 323 to 360 million. September 1, 2023 stocks were 264 million bushels. On-farm soybean stocks were 111 million bushels, up 54% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 231 million bushels, up 20% from a year ago. USDA revised 2023/24 bean production down 2.62 million bushels and lowered harvested area slightly to 82.3 million acres.
PRICE OUTLOOK: With soybean stocks coming in slightly below estimates, futures had a minor rally as the report was released. But November beans have fallen back to a couple cents lower on the day post-report. The recent rally of $1.15 a bushel since mid-August has not yet reached any major technical objective. Significant resistance should be seen at the 100-day moving average at 1078 and at the 50% retracement to the summer highs at 1091. Price action suggests further gains, but the US harvest should accelerate quickly this week with dry weather across all of the Midwest, and harvest pressure is likely to limit the upside potential above 1080.
CORN:
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed September 1 corn stocks at 1.760 billion bushels (the highest since 2020) versus an average expectation of 1.846 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 1.754 to 2.017 billion. September 1 stocks last year were 1.36 billion. On-farm corn stocks were 780 million bushels, up 29% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 980 million bushels, up 30% from a year ago. USDA revised 2023/24 corn production down 1.08 million bushels and cut harvested area 7,000 acres to 86.5 million.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Corn stocks came in below estimates and futures prices moved up to their highest level since June 28th post-report. This morning's technical price breakout paints a positive outlook for further gains to the upside. Next significant resistance is the 100-day moving average at 429. 50% retracement resistance to the May highs is 440. With the US Dollar hovering near the lows of the year, exports are likely to continue to stay strong, providing demand-led support on breaks.
WHEAT:
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed September 1 wheat stocks at 1.986 billion bushels (up 12% from year ago) versus an average expectation of 1.992 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 1.8 to 2.03 billion. September 1 stocks last year were 1.767 billion. On-farm wheat stocks were 47.1 million bushels, up 42% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 20.2 million bushels, down 16% from a year ago. The Small Grains Report showed 2024/25 All Wheat production at 1.971 billion bushels, versus an average of 1.983 billion and a range of 1.959 and 2.02 Billion. All Winter Wheat production came in at 1.35 billion bushels, versus an average of 1.36 million and a range of 1.34 and 1.382 million. Hard-Red Winter was 770.4 million bushels versus the average estimate of 766 million. Soft-Red Winter was 342.4 versus 342 estimated. White Winter was 236.5 versus 242 estimated. Other Spring 542.3 versus 545 estimated. Durum 80.1 versus 77 estimated.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Wheat stocks were a bit higher than the guesses, as was the All US Wheat production number, but post-report price action has been friendly, nonetheless. SRW and HRW production came in right on the estimates with no surprises there. Weather issues in the Black Sea, EU, and Argentine wheat are supportive underlying factors, and over the last 9 sessions, prices have continued to hold 20-day moving average support. Furthermore, The US southern Plains is drying down and more rain is needed for fall sowing. A breakout above last week's high at 596 1/4 would open the door for a run to longer term resistance between 608?617 on Chicago December.
Definition
This full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. The data is obtained via an off and on-farm stocks survey, the on-farm survey is a probability survey of farm operators, the off-farm stocks survey is enumerates the volume of grain in all known commercial grain storage facilities.
Description
Unlike the WASDE and other USDA reports, this report measures actual (counted) supply, not estimates or forecasts. It helps verify or correct the estimates in other the USDA reports, such as WASDE.
September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.
The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.
The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.
September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.
The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.
The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.
