Recent History
On FeedPlacementsMarketingsOn Feed
MonthMillion Head% YoYMillion Head% YoYMillion Head% YoY90+ Days
Mar-2411.838101.3%1.75288.0%1.70786.3%6.656
Apr-2411.826101.5%1.65694.2%1.872110.1%6.587
May-2411.55499.1%2.046104.3%1.955100.2%6.425
Jun-2411.58399.9%1.56493.2%1.78691.3%6.304
Jul-2411.304100.5%1.702105.8%1.855107.7%6.213
Aug-2411.095100.3%1.97598.6%1.81896.4%5.958
Sep-2411.198100.6%----6.124
Cattle on Feed Estimates
Estimates
As OfAverageLowHighLast Year
On FeedSep100.6%100.1%101.3%97.7%
PlacementsAug98.1%93.5%102.3%94.9%
MarketingsAug96.6%96.0%97.5%94.0%

Highlights

The USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed On Feed supply as of September 1st came in at 100.6% of last year versus average trade estimate of 100.6% with a range of 100.1% to 101.3%. Placements for the month of August at 98.6% versus trade expectations of 98.1% and a range of 93.5% to 102.3%. Marketings for August came in at 96.4% of last year as compared with the average estimate of 96.6% and a range of 96.0% to 97.5%.

On Feed number was right on the guesses and placements and marketings did not deviate significantly from the pre-report estimates, resulting in a mostly neutral report. On feed numbers in September are typically seasonally low before grass cattle move into commercial feedlots and the fall calf run starts. However, the extremely dry August and cheap corn prices across the US Plains may have prompted more cattle moving into feedlots than normal, accounting for the slightly higher than expected placements number. With Live Cattle futures closing the week very strong at its highest price since August 2nd, expect some minor profit taking early next week as December futures ended right on the .618% retracement to the late July highs at 183.20.

Definition

This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.

Description

This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.
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