ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.1%0.2%-0.0%
Year over Year1.5%1.2%

Highlights

The Canadian economy was up 0.2 percent in July after no change in June, just above the modest 0.1 percent rise expected in the Econoday survey. Year over year, the economy expanded by 1.5 percent in July.

The advance estimate for August points to another flat showing, underscoring sluggishness in the third quarter, and growth below the Bank of Canada's 2.8 percent forecast, with declining per capita GDP to boot.

For July, services and goods-producing sectors both showed growth with goods up 0.1 percent and services up 0.2 percent on the month. Overall, 13 of 20 sectors expanded in July.

Services did well despite the ill effect of wildfires on transportation, warehousing and accommodation. Gains largely reflected a strong showing in retail trade, the public sector and finance and insurance.

Goods-producing industries got their biggest lift from the utilities and manufacturing sectors.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

After no change in June and only a 0.1 percent rise in May, GDP in July is expected to rise 0.1 percent.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. In contrast to most industrialised countries a monthly estimate is provided derived from the value added by labour and capital in transforming inputs purchased from other producers into that industry's output. Data for the reference month are usually released close to the end of the second month after the reference period.

Description

Instead of producing an advanced quarterly GDP figure and revising it the following two months, Statistics Canada releases monthly estimates of real GDP at Basic Prices. This release breaks down real output by seven goods-producing industries and twelve service-producing industries, and includes special aggregations such as business sector, non-business sector, and industrial production.

The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.
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