The Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI) up to plus 0.12 in August after a downward revision to minus 0.42 in July. The index is above the consensus of 0.0 (zero) for August in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The three-month moving average is down to minus 0.17 in August after minus 0.13 in July.

In August, two of four broad categories increased from the prior month, although only one made a positive contribution. Production-related indicators are up to plus 0.21 in August after a large downward revision to minus 0.42 in July. Sales, orders, and inventories related indicators are minus 0.04 in August after plus 0.07 in July. Employment-related indicators are up to minus 0.01 in August after minus 0.09 in July. Personal consumption and housing related indicators are down to minus 0.04 in August after plus 0.02 in July.

Taken together, August reflects the cooling in the labor market and some bounce-back after the effects of Hurricane Beryl in July. It also shows that consumers are waiting for lower interest rates before entering the housing market and perhaps putting off big ticket purchases in anticipation of lower financing costs. But the outlook for the economy is a little more positive and the underlying trend a bit more stable.

The national activity index is expected to rise to 0.0 in August versus minus 0.34 in a July report that saw three of four components in the negative column, including production that was likely hit by Hurricane Beryl.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.