ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month-0.1%0.2%0.2%
Year over Year-1.0%-0.8%-0.8%

Highlights

Producer prices decreased by 0.8 percent year-over-year, primarily due to a substantial decrease in energy costs, specifically in natural gas and electricity which fell by 10.1 percent and 9.2 percent respectively. Despite a minor month-over-month increase of 0.8 percent, energy prices have decreased, which is indicative of the energy market's volatility. Producer prices increased by 1.2 percent, excluding energy, indicating inflationary pressures in other sectors.

The prices of intermediate products increased slightly by 0.7 percent year-over-year, with electric transformers and building materials experiencing significant increases. Nevertheless, the price of metals experienced a decline of 2.0 percent, with iron and steel experiencing substantial declines. In the interim, machinery and motor vehicles experienced a price increase, while capital goods and consumer goods experienced moderate price growth. Overall, food prices experienced a modest increase; however, commodity-specific inflation was evident in the 41.7 percent increase in the price of specific products, such as butter.

In essence, the data indicates a significant disparity between energy prices, which have experienced a substantial decline, and other sectors such as capital and consumption products, which continue to experience inflationary pressures. The complex dynamics that affect industrial producers are exemplified by this divergence, leaving the RPI at minus 11 and the RPI-P at minus 13, well below market forecasts of the German economy.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

After rising an as-expected 0.2 percent on the month in July, August's PPI is seen down 0.1 percent. Year-over-year, the PPI is expected at minus 1.0 percent versus July's minus 0.8 percent.

Definition

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the price of industrial and commercial goods produced and sold domestically (excluding turnover tax). About 1,250 types of goods are used to calculate the index and prices are reported by a total of 5,000 enterprises under fixed contractual conditions. Changes in the index provide a guide to inflation from the point of view of the product's producer/manufacturer and, in contrast to the consumer price index (CPI), excludes VAT and other deductible taxed associated with turnover.

Description

The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI).

Because the index of producer prices measures price changes at an early stage in the economic process, it can serve as an indicator of future inflation trends. The producer price index and its sub-indexes are often used in business contracts for the adjustment of recurring payments. They also are used to deflate other values of economic statistics like the production index. It should be noted that the PPI excludes construction. These price statistics cover both the sales of industrial products to domestic buyers at different stages in the economic process and the sales between industrial enterprises.

The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.

The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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