ActualPreviousRevised
Output - M/M-0.3%0.0%
Output - Y/Y0.2%0.8%
Input - M/M-0.5%-0.1%-0.3%
Input - Y/Y-1.2%0.4%0.2%

Highlights


Factory gate prices fell 0.3 percent on the month. With no revisions for July, annual inflation rate eased from July's 0.8 to 0.2. On the month, prices fell sharply for coke and refined petroleum products (4.7 percent) and food products (0.2 percent) but there were gains in alcohol and tobacco products (0.7 percent), chemicals and pharmacuticals (0.4 percent) and paper and printed materials (0.4). Consequently, core prices fell, trimming the underlying yearly rate to 0.2 percent.

At the same time, raw material and fuel costs dipped 0.5 percent versus June. Following a steeper revised 0.3 percent fall in July. Positive base effects dropped yearly inflation 1.2 percent from July's revised 0.2 percent. Prices of beverages and tobacco rose 0.3 percent and chemicals also rose 0.3 percent but there were falls in crude petroleum and natural gas falling 6.1 percent and domestic food falling 1.6 percent.

Today's inflation updates data put the UK's RPI at minus 12 and the RPI-P at minus 28, meaning that economic activity in general is falling short of market forecasts.

Definition

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the prices of goods bought and sold by manufacturers. The input price index measure the prices of materials and fuels purchased by manufacturers for processing. These are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day running. The output price index captures prices charged by manufacturers as they pass through the factory gate and excludes any VAT or similar deductible tax. Both measures may be seen as leading indicators of consumer price index (CPI) inflation although the short-term correlation is only very weak.

Description

The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months. A producer's price is the amount received by a producer from the purchaser of a unit of goods or services produced as output less any value added tax (VAT) or similar deductible tax, invoiced to the purchaser. It excludes any transportation charges invoiced separately by the producer.

The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.

The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.

The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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