Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
Year over Year | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
Highlights
Household consumption posted a modest and unrevised 0.2 percent quarterly gain, down from the previous period's 0.6 percent rise, while growth of gross fixed capital formation eased from 1.2 percent to a slightly stronger revised 0.6 percent. Within the latter, business investment now shows a 1.4 percent advance having dipped 0.1 percent in the earlier estimate. Government spending jumped 1.1 percent but business inventories subtracted 0.2 percentage points.
Net foreign trade had a sizeable negative impact, subtracting a larger revised 2.2 percentage points as a 0.3 percent drop in exports was compounded by a 6.3 percent spike in imports. At £22.5 billion, the real foreign trade deficit was the largest since the first quarter of 2022.
Still, despite the small downward adjustment to headline growth, the composition of final demand is more positive and confirms that the economy outperformed most expectations over the first half of the year. As such, it also reduces pressure on the BoE to cut Bank Rate again in November. Today's updates put the UK RPI at 0 and the RPI-P at minus 5. Overall economic activity is running broadly in line with market forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.
Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if the UK reports that the consumer price index has risen more than the Bank of England's 2 percent inflation target, demand for sterling could decline. Similarly, when the Bank of England lowers interest rates, the pound sterling weakens. (Currency traders also watch the interest rate spread between countries.)