Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
HICP - M/M | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
HICP - Y/Y | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% |
Narrow Core - M/M | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
Narrow Core - Y/Y | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% |
Highlights
Services inflation continues its upward trend, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1 percent, marking its fourth consecutive month above 4 percent. On the other hand, non-energy industrial goods showed a significant decline, falling by 0.3 percentage points to 0.4 percent. Energy prices took a sharp drop to -3.0 percent following a 1.2 percent rise, highlighting volatility in this sector. Food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation held steady at 2.3 percent, showing resilience in consumer staples.
Regionally, headline inflation fell in France (2.2 percent after 2.7 percent), Germany (2.0 percent after 2.6 percent), Italy (1.2 percent after 1.6 percent) and Spain (2.4 percent after 2.9 percent). In contrast, headline inflation rose in Denmark (1.4 percent after 1.0 percent) and Greece (3.2 percent after 3.0 percent).
The latest EU inflation report suggests challenging conditions for the ECB ahead of its October meeting. Both core inflation and services inflation, which have remained elevated, indicate underlying price pressures in the economy despite falling energy prices. These trends suggest that inflationary dynamics have become more entrenched, especially in sectors like services, where price increases continue. Moreover, with the Eurozone RPI (minus 2) and RPI-P (minus 12), the real economy would welcome any reduction in borrowing costs.
Definition
Description
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.