ConsensusActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter0.3%0.2%0.3%
Year over Year0.6%0.6%0.4%

Highlights

The flash data for the April-June period were revised a little softer, reducing quarterly growth by a tick to 0.2 percent but leaving the yearly rate unchanged at 0.6 percent.

The first look at the expenditure components showed another sluggish period for domestic demand. Hence, household spending fell 0.1 percent on the quarter while gross fixed capital formation declined fully 2.2 percent having already shrunk 1.8 percent at the start of the year. Government spending was up 0.6 percent. Consequently, with business inventories having a neutral impact, the economy would have contracted but for net exports. With exports up 1.4 percent and imports only 0.5 percent, the real trade balance added a tidy 0.5 percentage points.

Within the region's quarterly advance, France expanded 0.2 percent, Italy also 0.2 percent and Spain a solid 0.8 percent for a second straight quarter. However, as shown previously, headline growth was held in check by Germany which recorded an unrevised 0.1 percent dip, its second contraction in the last three quarters. Elsewhere Greece (1.1 percent) had another good quarter as did Croatia (0.8 percent) and Lithuania (0.7 percent). However, Latvia (minus 0.9 percent) posted a sizeable decline alongside Ireland, where growth was slashed from the previously reported 1.2 percent to minus 1.0 percent. Austria (minus 0.4 percent) also contracted.

The second quarter update confirms a sluggish picture of Eurozone growth and particularly soft domestic demand. The third quarter is likely to tell a similar story unless the German economy can gain some traction very soon. Accordingly, businesses and consumers would more than welcome another cut in ECB interest rates, and today's report can only boost the chances of a move next week. The revised data reduce the Eurozone RPI to 8 and the RPI-P to 4. Overall economic activity is now running only marginally ahead of market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the flash data.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy and is usually released early in the third month after the reference period. Following two provisional (flash) estimates containing only limited information, this report provides the first full look at the national accounts for the region.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.

Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both typically lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures can put downside pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if inflation remains above the ECB’s near-2 percent target for long enough, worries about the impact of lost competitiveness on the merchandise trade balance could prompt investors to switch to an alternative currency.
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