Initial jobless claims are down 12,000 to 219,000 in the September 14 week after a negligible upward revision to 231,000 in the prior week. The level is below the consensus of 230,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The level is the lowest since 216,000 in the May 18 week. The decrease is exaggerated by seasonal adjustment factors which had anticipated a larger increase than occurred. The four-week moving average is down 3,500 to 227,500 in the September 14 week. Despite some week-to-week fluctuations, the underlying trend for new filings for benefits remains consistent with a healthy labor market with relatively normal layoff activity.

The level of insured jobless claims is down 14,000 to 1.829 million in the September 7 week. The change is small but is the third week in a row of declines that suggests the unemployment rolls are coming down slightly. The four-week moving average is down 6,500 to 1.844 million from 1.851 million in the prior week. The decline is small but is the fourth week in a row of declines. Unemployment among those eligible for benefits is consistent with a labor market able to absorb laid-off workers. The insured rate of unemployment is unchanged at 1.2 percent in the September 7 week where it has been with almost no variation since March 2023.

Jobless claims for the September 14 week are expected to come in unchanged at 230,000, extending their recent trend.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.