Highlights

Bank of Japan board members urged a cautious approach to normalizing the bank's policy after years of keeping interest rates near zero, according to the summary of the bank's Sept. 19-20 meeting.

"Japan's economy is not in a situation where the bank may fall behind the curve if it does not raise the policy interest rate at a certain pace," one member said, echoing public remarks by Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, a career central banker who was at the core of large-scale monetary easing."Therefore, the bank will not raise its policy interest rate when financial and capital markets are unstable."

Another one agreed:"Since the upside risk to prices reflecting higher import prices has become smaller with the yen's depreciation being retraced recently, the bank has enough time to assess the situation."

A different member was more cautious:"The price stability target has not been achieved, and there remain uncertainties regarding economic and financial developments. In this situation, it is undesirable at this point to change the policy interest rate further, which might suggest a shift to full-fledged monetary tightening."

Looking ahead, another member projected,"It seems that, if economic activity and prices remain on track, the bank can follow a path in which it raises the policy interest rate gradually so that the rate will be 1.0 percent in the second half of fiscal 2025 at the earliest. Therefore, the bank should maintain the current policy interest rate at this meeting."

At least three members stressed the need of the bank to seek closer communications with the public and markets. One said,"The bank should make every effort to enhance its communication by, for example, disseminating information in a way that leaves no misalignment between the views of the bank and markets, and promptly correcting any misalignment should it occur."

At its Sept. 19-20 meeting, the bank's nine-member board decided in a unanimous vote to maintain the target for the overnight interest rate at 0.25 percent. The bank's assessment of the economy was unchanged since its view was expressed in the quarterly Outlook Report issued in July: It has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part, and that it is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate.

In July, the board decided in a 7 to 2 vote to raise the overnight interest rate target to 0.25 percent from a range of 0 percent to 0.1 percent, citing gradually rising inflation expectations among households and businesses and high but slightly easing uncertainties for the economy. It also warned of upside risks to its GDP and CPI forecasts, specifically pointing out that the impact of currency market fluctuations on domestic prices is greater than in the past now that more firms are reflecting higher costs in prices and raising wages amid widespread labor shortages.

Definition

The Bank of Japan releases the Summary of Opinions expressed by its nine policy board members six business days after each Monetary Policy Meeting.

Description

The BoJ holds eight MPMs a year, in January, March, April, June, July, September, October and December. The BoJ began publishing the summary in 2016 to provide a brief look at what was discussed at the latest meeting as part of its efforts to increase the transparency of the conduct of monetary policy. The governor of the bank holds a news conference at 1530 JST (0630 GMT), a few hours after the release of the monetary policy statement, to discuss the board's policy decision and assessment of the economic and financial conditions. More details become available when the summary is published. Before 2016, market participants had to wait until the release of the minutes, which comes a month or two after the meeting because the board must approve the minutes at the following meeting before its release. The summary is edited by the governor and does not require the board's approval.
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