Highlights
"Japan's economy is not in a situation where the bank may fall behind the curve if it does not raise the policy interest rate at a certain pace," one member said, echoing public remarks by Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, a career central banker who was at the core of large-scale monetary easing."Therefore, the bank will not raise its policy interest rate when financial and capital markets are unstable."
Another one agreed:"Since the upside risk to prices reflecting higher import prices has become smaller with the yen's depreciation being retraced recently, the bank has enough time to assess the situation."
A different member was more cautious:"The price stability target has not been achieved, and there remain uncertainties regarding economic and financial developments. In this situation, it is undesirable at this point to change the policy interest rate further, which might suggest a shift to full-fledged monetary tightening."
Looking ahead, another member projected,"It seems that, if economic activity and prices remain on track, the bank can follow a path in which it raises the policy interest rate gradually so that the rate will be 1.0 percent in the second half of fiscal 2025 at the earliest. Therefore, the bank should maintain the current policy interest rate at this meeting."
At least three members stressed the need of the bank to seek closer communications with the public and markets. One said,"The bank should make every effort to enhance its communication by, for example, disseminating information in a way that leaves no misalignment between the views of the bank and markets, and promptly correcting any misalignment should it occur."
At its Sept. 19-20 meeting, the bank's nine-member board decided in a unanimous vote to maintain the target for the overnight interest rate at 0.25 percent. The bank's assessment of the economy was unchanged since its view was expressed in the quarterly Outlook Report issued in July: It has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part, and that it is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate.
In July, the board decided in a 7 to 2 vote to raise the overnight interest rate target to 0.25 percent from a range of 0 percent to 0.1 percent, citing gradually rising inflation expectations among households and businesses and high but slightly easing uncertainties for the economy. It also warned of upside risks to its GDP and CPI forecasts, specifically pointing out that the impact of currency market fluctuations on domestic prices is greater than in the past now that more firms are reflecting higher costs in prices and raising wages amid widespread labor shortages.