Highlights
The European Commission's economic sentiment index for August is expected to be little changed at 95.9 from July's 95.8, which extended a long flat trend well short of the 100 long-run average.
In Germany, consumer inflation is forecast to ease slightly to 2.2 percent in August after edging up to 2.3 percent in July from 2.2 percent in June. The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) seen steady at 2.6 percent, compared to 2.6 percent in July and 2.5 percent in June.
Among US data, the second reading of April-June quarter GDP is 2.8 percent growth, which would be unchanged from the first estimate. Personal consumption expenditures are also expected to be unchanged from the initial estimate, at 2.3 percent growth.
The US goods deficit (Census basis) is expected to widen by $1.4 billion to $98.0 billion in July after narrowing by $2.5 billion in June to $96.6 billion.
New jobless claims for the August 24 week are expected to come in down 2,000 at 230,000. Claims have been coming in near the 230,000 level the last several reports.
Pending home sales in July, which in June jumped 4.8 percent on better supply and lower rates, are expected to rise 1.1 percent.
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will give an"Introduction to the Federal Reserve and an Economic Outlook" presentation before a Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Management of Financial Institutions class at 3:30 p.m. EDT (1930 GMT).
Consumer inflation in Tokyo, the leading indicator of the national average, is forecast to stay on a gradual uptrend in the core reading (only fresh food is excluded) in August after the government ended its 18-month-long subsidies in June for July bill payments and dangerously high temperatures around 40 degrees Celsius in many cities boosted the prices for air conditioners. The core CPI (excluding fresh food), closely watched by the Bank of Japan, is expected to post a 2.3 percent increase on year after creeping up to 2.2 percent in July from
2.1 percent in June.
The year-over-year rise in the total CPI is forecast to move up to 2.4 percent from July's 2.2 percent as the kill heat wave have caused an unusual short supply of rice, leading to the sharpest markup for the primary staple in 20 years. The annual rate for the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is seen at 1.4 percent, down from 1.5 percent in July and 1.8 percent in June, thanks to easing upward pressures from processed food prices.
Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 24th straight rise on year in July amid widespread labor shortages. The unemployment rate is forecast at 2.5 percent, unchanged from June, when it improved slightly from 2.6 percent seen the previous three months (some call for 2.6 percent). In June, year-over-year job growth was led by the wholesale/retail industry and the hotels, restaurants and bars category while construction was flat and manufacturing shed jobs fell for the fourth straight month. The government sees employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement."
Japan's industrial production is forecast to rebound a 3.7 percent on the month in July after slumping a downwardly revised 4.2 percent in June on a 3.6 percent gain in May. Solid overseas demand for semiconductor-making equipment and production machinery appears have cushioned the remaining impact of partial shutdown at some of Toyota factories following more revelations of false safety test records in June, this time at Toyota Motor itself, instead of its subsidiaries. The METI's survey of producers indicated that output is expected to rise 4.0 percent in July before partially rebounding 3.6 percent in July before rising a further 0.7% in August. On year, factory output is expected to rebound 2.6 percent, following a downwardly revised 7.9 percent plunge in June and a 1.1 percent rise in May.
Japanese retail sales are forecast to have risen 3.0 percent on the year in July for a 29th straight increase as record high temperatures in many regions boosted demand for air conditioners, refrigerators and beverages, but the pace of increase is seen moderating from a 3.8 percent gain (revised up from 3.7 percent) because it was not safe to stay outdoors for a long time. On the month, retail sales are expected to edge up 0.2 percent, after marking a third straight increase, up 0.6 percent in June. Last month, the METI upgraded its assessment for the second month in a row, saying retail sales are"on an uptrend." Previously, it said they were"on a gradual uptrend" in its first upgrade in 15 months.
Australian retail sales in July are expected to increase 0.4 percent on the month after June's better-than-expected 0.5 percent increase.
In Germany, consumer inflation is forecast to ease slightly to 2.2 percent in August after edging up to 2.3 percent in July from 2.2 percent in June. The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) seen steady at 2.6 percent, compared to 2.6 percent in July and 2.5 percent in June.
Among US data, the second reading of April-June quarter GDP is 2.8 percent growth, which would be unchanged from the first estimate. Personal consumption expenditures are also expected to be unchanged from the initial estimate, at 2.3 percent growth.
The US goods deficit (Census basis) is expected to widen by $1.4 billion to $98.0 billion in July after narrowing by $2.5 billion in June to $96.6 billion.
New jobless claims for the August 24 week are expected to come in down 2,000 at 230,000. Claims have been coming in near the 230,000 level the last several reports.
Pending home sales in July, which in June jumped 4.8 percent on better supply and lower rates, are expected to rise 1.1 percent.
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will give an"Introduction to the Federal Reserve and an Economic Outlook" presentation before a Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Management of Financial Institutions class at 3:30 p.m. EDT (1930 GMT).
Consumer inflation in Tokyo, the leading indicator of the national average, is forecast to stay on a gradual uptrend in the core reading (only fresh food is excluded) in August after the government ended its 18-month-long subsidies in June for July bill payments and dangerously high temperatures around 40 degrees Celsius in many cities boosted the prices for air conditioners. The core CPI (excluding fresh food), closely watched by the Bank of Japan, is expected to post a 2.3 percent increase on year after creeping up to 2.2 percent in July from
2.1 percent in June.
The year-over-year rise in the total CPI is forecast to move up to 2.4 percent from July's 2.2 percent as the kill heat wave have caused an unusual short supply of rice, leading to the sharpest markup for the primary staple in 20 years. The annual rate for the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is seen at 1.4 percent, down from 1.5 percent in July and 1.8 percent in June, thanks to easing upward pressures from processed food prices.
Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 24th straight rise on year in July amid widespread labor shortages. The unemployment rate is forecast at 2.5 percent, unchanged from June, when it improved slightly from 2.6 percent seen the previous three months (some call for 2.6 percent). In June, year-over-year job growth was led by the wholesale/retail industry and the hotels, restaurants and bars category while construction was flat and manufacturing shed jobs fell for the fourth straight month. The government sees employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement."
Japan's industrial production is forecast to rebound a 3.7 percent on the month in July after slumping a downwardly revised 4.2 percent in June on a 3.6 percent gain in May. Solid overseas demand for semiconductor-making equipment and production machinery appears have cushioned the remaining impact of partial shutdown at some of Toyota factories following more revelations of false safety test records in June, this time at Toyota Motor itself, instead of its subsidiaries. The METI's survey of producers indicated that output is expected to rise 4.0 percent in July before partially rebounding 3.6 percent in July before rising a further 0.7% in August. On year, factory output is expected to rebound 2.6 percent, following a downwardly revised 7.9 percent plunge in June and a 1.1 percent rise in May.
Japanese retail sales are forecast to have risen 3.0 percent on the year in July for a 29th straight increase as record high temperatures in many regions boosted demand for air conditioners, refrigerators and beverages, but the pace of increase is seen moderating from a 3.8 percent gain (revised up from 3.7 percent) because it was not safe to stay outdoors for a long time. On the month, retail sales are expected to edge up 0.2 percent, after marking a third straight increase, up 0.6 percent in June. Last month, the METI upgraded its assessment for the second month in a row, saying retail sales are"on an uptrend." Previously, it said they were"on a gradual uptrend" in its first upgrade in 15 months.
Australian retail sales in July are expected to increase 0.4 percent on the month after June's better-than-expected 0.5 percent increase.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
