Benchmark revisions rarely move the needle like they did today. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shocked everyone by cutting 818,000 payroll jobs from April last year to March this year, which comes to an average overstatement of 68,000 per month over the course of a year. This revision doesn't affect the unemployment rate which is calculated from a separate set of data and which has confirmed solid labor market strength all along, but it fairly raises the question whether the Federal Reserve should have already begun cutting rates.

Yet also published today were minutes from the Fed's meeting three weeks ago in which it is stated that many participants noted that reported payroll gains might be overstated!! (exclamation points added by Econoday). Though the Fed may be less surprised than everybody else, it won't be any surprise to find Jerome Powell talking down interest rates in his Friday morning talk at Jackson Hole.

The 2-year Treasury yield whipsawed at the midmorning revision news, eventually falling 7 basis points to 3.93 percent. Yet with the Dow up fractionally and the Nasdaq up only 0.4 percent, stock market reaction proved to be subdued perhaps given the mixed message from the revision rate cuts good, lower job growth bad. In the wake of the BLS announcement, something should be said for the accuracy of ADP's employment count which was and has been consistently lower than the BLS's numbers.

Market Reflections track market reaction to the trading day's major events. Economic data, policymaker speeches, and company news are featured in this report as well as key indexes and financial instruments.

Understanding why markets respond as they do is fundamental for an investor. Market Reflections help explain how the day's events, news, and data impact the outlook for the economy and for market prices.